ITC shares trading near 52-week low, mcap slips below Rs 4 lakh crore; what lies ahead?

Shares of ITC are in a downtrend for three years with the stock clocking a majority of losses this month on fresh excise duty hikes on cigarettes announced by the government. ITC shares are trading near their 52-week low of Rs 318 reached on January 27, 2026. The FMCG stock, which is heavily oversold on charts, with a RSI of 18.5 displays negative returns in period up to three years. In two years, the stock has lost 25% and fallen 21% in a month. The stock closed lower last year after four straight years of annual gain. 

However, the company is almost debt free. It has a healthy net profit CAGR of 32.7 in three years. The company will announce its Q3 earnings today. 

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In the current session, ITC shares traded on a flat note at Rs 318.70. Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 3.99 lakh crore. 

Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Broking is bearish on the outlook of the stock. 

"ITC has witnessed a sharp trend breakdown on the monthly chart, ending a prolonged consolidation-to-uptrend phase and signalling a meaningful shift from bullish to bearish structure. Structurally, ITC has transitioned into a lower high–lower low formation, confirming a bearish trend shift on higher timeframes. On the upside, Rs 350 acts as the first resistance, followed by a major supply zone around Rs 365–373. As long as price stays below these levels, the bearish structure remains intact and favours further consolidation or downside toward the Rs 300 support zone," said Shah. 

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said, "The stock is now hovering near the  Rs 320–Rs 325 band, a zone that historically has seen price stabilisation attempts. The recent candle suggests selling intensity is easing compared to the breakdown week, indicating that downside momentum may be slowing at current levels. A short-term rebound cannot be ruled out.  On the upside, any pullback is likely to face resistance around Rs 345–Rs 350. Accumulation can be considered in tranches with a long-term view."