ITC Q3 results preview; what stock investors should track today

ITC Ltd is likely to report a 6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in adjusted net profit for the December quarter, due to higher other income in the base quarter. Revenue for the FMCG major is expected to grow up to 8 per cent YoY, while cigarette segment volumes are seen rising 5-7 per cent.  

All eyes will be on ITC's commentary on cigarette volumes, following the government’s sharp increase in cigarette excise duty, effective February 1, 2026. Analysts noted that volumes, which moderated from FY23 highs to low single digits in FY25, were showing improving momentum into FY26. 

Systematix Shares and Stocks said commentary on recent cigarette taxation changes, competitive intensity in cigarettes, FMCG demand and paper segment growth will be key monitorables. For Q3, Nuvama sees net profit falling 6.4 per cent YoY to Rs 5,075.20 crore, citing higher other income in the base quarter. It sees revenue for the FMCG major rising 5.9 per cent YoY to Rs 18,063 crore. 

"Cigarette volumes shall increase 5.5 per cent YoY on a base of 6 per cent growth in Q3FY25. We anticipate cigarette net revenue/EBIT to grow 7.1 per cent/4 per cent YoY. We forecast overall revenue shall grow 6 per cent YoY (down 3.7 per cent YoY in Q2FY26 and up 8.3 per cent YoY in Q3FY25)," Nuvama said.

Kotak Institutional Equities sees 5.5 per cent drop in net profit at Rs 5,125 crore. It sees revenue rising 8.3 per cent YoY to Rs 18,463 crore.It expe ts cigarette volume growth to be steady and resilient at 6 per cent. Cigarette EBIT growth is estimated at 5 per cent YoY, with EBIT margin declining 100 bps YoY, due to consumption of high-cost leaf tobacco and other inputs. 

"Leaf tobacco prices have moderated in the recent quarters but benefits will be accrued fully from Q4 onwards," it said.YES Securities, meanwhile,  expects ITC's net profit at Rs 5,279.60 crore and sales at Rs 18,211.40 crore. It sees volume growth for cigarette business at 7 per cent. 

"Agri business, other-FMCG business and PPP business revenues are expected to grow at 5 per cent, 8 per cent and 6 per cent YoY respectively. At the company level, we expect gross margin and Ebitda margin to improve 62 bps and 86 bps YoY to 55.1 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively. Ebitda and adjusted PAT are likely to grow by 9.5 per cent and 7.9 per cent YoY, respectively.

Nomura said the cigarette EBIT margins may remain under pressure as ITC continued to consume high-priced leaf tobacco crop, leading to cigarette EBIT growth at 4 per cent YoY.

"We expect this to continue for next few quarters (excluding any further impact from the recently announced increase in taxation, which we believe will further put some additional pressure on its volumes and margins)," it said.