Jio Platforms IPO: Reliance Q3 results today; key things to watch for digital business

RIL Q3 results: Mukesh Ambani led oil, telecom and retail behemoth Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) will announce its results for the quarter and nine-months ended on December 31, 2025. Besides this, investors will be looking at developments around the much awaited initial public offering (IPO) of Jio Platforms and its standalone earnings.

Reliance Jio Infocomm is shifting focus from network expansion to monetization and cash flow generation ahead of the much awaited IPO of Jio Platforms, its parent company, which is eyeing a listing in 2026. Analysts expect a strong revenue growth, while Ebitda is projected faster than revenue led by operating leverage, higher ARPU and subscriber additions.

BNP Paribas expects 2026 to be an eventful year for the Indian Telecom industry and would watch out for Jio Platforms IPO, which could raise the weightage of the sector in indices; we see high likelihood of a mobile tariff hike in 1H2026; the DoT recently provided relief to VIL on its AGR dues.

The brokerage does not expect this to have a meaningful impact on the Indian mobile market share trends in 2026; non-mobile opportunities, such as home and data center, could see an increase in the share of capex. Increasing adoption of digital services, such as cloud and AI services, creates differentiation opportunities in the near-term and a possible monetisation opportunity.

On a standalone basis, BNP Paribas is penciling a strong revenue growth boosted by India mobile’s YoY performance and rising home broadband adoption and Ebitda to grow slightly ahead of revenue growth in December 2025 quarter. "We expect Jio to add 6.5 million QoQ subscribers. 5 million in mobile and 2 million in broadband. Data volumes continue to see strong growth," it said.

RIL's backed Jio Platforms has the potential to be the largest IPO in India in 2026. Post the IPO, said BNP Paribas. "We could have two large-listed telecom operators in India, which could result in an increase in telecom sector weightage in the indices," it noted. The brokerage has a target price of Rs 1,855 on the stock.

Reliance Jio Infocomm is transitioning from an aggressive network built to a strategic focus on reinforcing its monetisation story ahead of a potential 2026 IPO. This quarter (Q3FY26) is seen as a period of consolidation with expectations of consistent subscriber additions with some improvements in average revenue per user (ARPU).

"We estimate a 9 per cent YoY rise in RIL’s consolidated EBITDA on a strong O2C and digital showing, offset by muted Retail growth and O&G weakness," said Nuvama Institutional Equities. "Jio's Ebitda may rise 16 per cent YoY/2 per cent QoQ on higher ARPU and subs-adds post tariff hike and 7 oer cent YoY and 1 per cent QoQ rise in subscribers," it said.

Reliance Jio has rapidly expanded 5G adoption to 234 million users, nearly half its mobile base, boosting monetisation through higher data usage and 5G-based wireless access. At the same time, non-telecom digital services such as cloud, managed services, content and devices are emerging as key growth drivers.

Reliance Industries stands out with healthy growth across Jio, said Antique Stock Broking. It added that Jio's Ebitda is likely to increase 2.3 per cent QoQ, driven by a 0.5 per cent ARPU uptick (Rs 212.5 versus Rs 211.4) and 5 million net subscriber additions. Antique has a 'buy' rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 1,645.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects Ebitda for digital services to marginally increase 2.7 per cent QoQ (up 16.5 per cent YoY), driven by marginally higher ARPU/subs. "We expect segment EBITDA to rise 17 per cent for telecom," said Kotak, while penciling its consolidated Ebitda to rise by 9.3 per cent YoY and 4.3 per cent QoQ.

According to report from Reuters, Indian stock market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has approved a cut to the minimum proportion of shares large companies looking to list must sell to 2.5 per cent of their share capital from 5 per cent, paving the way for Reliance Jio Platforms' highly-anticipated IPO.