Market outlook: Nifty holds above 200-DMA. Here's what it signals

Nifty on Wednesday closed near its long-term moving average, the 200-Day EMA, around the 25,150 level, after briefly breaching it intraday. Analysts said a decisive breach of the same could trigger panic among traders. For the day, Nifty settled at 25,157.50, down 75 points or 0.30 per cent. It hit a low of 24,919.80 intraday. 

Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One said the intraday price action reflected uncertainty, as prices reached key long-term support levels with oscillators in the oversold zone, triggering a bounce. 

The upside remained capped, however, resulting in an indecisive candlestick formation on the daily chart, known as Spinning Bottom. 

"Given the recent price behaviour, we remain cautious. In the absence of a clear bullish reversal signal, further downside cannot be ruled out, with the weekly 50-EMA placed around the 24,900–24,800 zone acting as immediate support. On the flip side, the high of today’s session near 25,300 coinciding with the November swing high, stands out as a stiff hurdle," Bhosale said. 

A decisive move above this level could trigger short covering and a short-term pullback, he said while at the same time noting that volatility is expected to remain elevated, and traders are advised to avoid taking undue risks.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said it usually shakes the market when the 200-day moving average is challenged, and it is not going to be just black and white. 

"Over the next few days, the index may remain highly volatile. On the lower end, support is placed at 25,125. A decisive fall below 25,125 could trigger further panic in the market. On the higher end, resistance on a closing basis is placed at 25,200," De said.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking said while weakness in the currency and a cautious global backdrop may continue to weigh on sentiment, oversold conditions in select heavyweight stocks could offer some short-term relief. 

"On the downside, the 24,750–24,900 zone is seen as the next key support, while any rebound is likely to face resistance in the 25,300–25,450 range. In the current environment, a cautious stance is advisable, with preference for hedged positions and balanced exposure on both sides," he said.