Navneet Munot on ‘maiden overs’ in stocks, Atmanirbhar markets, India-US trade talks

In his much-awaited annual letter, HDFC Asset Management Company Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Navneet Munot reflected on the key developments of 2025, including India-US trade negotiations, artificial intelligence valuations, the return of bond vigilantes, the surge in initial public offerings, the weaponisation of the dollar, global domestic unrest and the rally in bullion prices.

Munot called 2025 a tango of “Tension and Transformation.” He felt the India-US strategic mission was deeply shadowed by episodic transactionalism. An FTA must compound mutual interest and shared principles, he said, adding that despite a 50 per cent tariff and H1-B motion, India would not write blanket “American options.”

"Steeped in strategic autonomy, India is balancing Russia, China and the US with composure, while relentlessly labouring on reform codes, a Nuclear SHANTI and Maritime renaissance. Classic ‘Thus spake Chanakya’," he said.

On the Indian stock market, Munot said domestic equities played maiden overs, yet marked the 10th consecutive inning (year) of positive scores.

"Tail-enders (small caps) underperformed. Relative valuations, a competitive rupee, steady macro conditions and earnings revival set a better pitch now," he said.

He noted that investors created better futures with SIP options and that the "Atmanirbhar capital market" has been a dream come true.

Munot highlighted that the weaponisation of dollars, trade and finance is a costly affair. He did not name anybody, but the imposition of import tariffs by the US, whose national debt ballooned to $38 trillion, disrupted the global economy earlier this year.

"Debtors can’t be choosers. Precious metals dazzled on dollar debasement doubts. Silver won the gold medal! Copper cranked up. Flared like Owen Cooper of ‘Adolescence’. Bitcoin volatility puts Disney rides to shame. Ditch memecoins for Gaga’s ‘Mayhem.’ Stablecoins can ‘Tailor’ Swiftonomics," Munot said.

Again, without naming anybody, Munot said do’s and don’ts do not apply to 'Don.' During the year, US President Donald Trump claimed he ended eight wars. Trump did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize for his peacemaking credentials.

"Orchestrating a truce in the Middle East or showing ‘neighbourly’ love in Alaska are indeed Nobel-worthy, but making a vulnerable surrender unconditionally or arbitrary tantrums are not," Munot said.

He said the likes of WTO, UN, NATO, G-20 and COP are more than acronyms—imperfect yet purposeful. "The lead architect’s retreat from global stewardship to strategic inwardness accelerates fragmentation and new blocs," Munot said, probably referring to the US.

He added that, Liberation Day aside, CEOs doubled up as Chief Geopolitics Officers. It was on the US Liberation Day, April 2, 2025, when the US President announced a broad package of import duties.

Munot said Europe is rebuilding itself, looking beyond American security, Russian energy and Chinese trade.

In India, Munot said the middle class received greater attention in 2025 with lower taxes. He took note of India’s inflation, which is at the RBI's lower band at a time when anger is simmering on ‘affordability’ globally.

On the Russia–Ukraine war, Munot said Ukraine's Zelensky was tested not just against Moscow but also by graft at home, softer US backing and Europe filling the gap in tow. Sanctions, frozen assets, a long war and economic wear: Putin stands defiant in his 25th year, he noted.

On domestic unrest globally, Munot said: "From Kenya to Peru, Nepal to Madagascar, digitally networked Dudes demonstrated dissatisfaction on the streets. Bangladesh showed mobocracy at its worst. Tanzania saw huge strain; Sudan, humanitarian pain."

Great-power tension has just begun, he said, noting that China, stereotyped as a CopyCat, is a gorilla in cutting-edge R&D and manufacturing.