RIL, HPCL, BPCL, IOC, GAIL, PLNG, MGL, ONGC, OIL India, IGL, Gujarat Gas: Target prices

Nomura expects a mixed earnings season for India’s oil and gas sector in Q2FY26, with oil marketing companies (OMCs) likely facing a sharp sequential decline in profitability due to weaker marketing margins, while upstream producers may benefit from firmer crude realisations and currency gains. Gas utilities are expected to post muted results amid higher input costs and rupee depreciation. Reliance Industries (RIL), meanwhile, is seen delivering stable performance, supported by its telecom and oil-to-chemicals (O2C) businesses, even as softer trends in retail and upstream may offset some gains.

Nomura maintained its 'Buy' on RIL, HPCL, BPCL, IOCL, GAIL, Petronet LNG, and MGL; 'Neutral' on ONGC, OIL India, and IGL; and 'Reduce' on Gujarat Gas.

RIL
Nomura estimated RIL’s consolidated Ebitda at Rs 44,400 crore for Q2FY26, up 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, as sustained strength in Jio and O2C is offset by muted retail and upstream performance. O2C Ebitda is pegged at Rs 15,020 crore, up 4 per cent QoQ, driven by higher refining margins and throughput, with GRMs estimated at $10.1 per barrel against $10 in Q1FY26. Upstream Ebitda is expected to remain flat at Rs 5,000 crore, as lower volumes are offset by favorable currency movements.

Jio’s Ebitda is estimated at Rs 17,230 crore, up 3 per cent QoQ, aided by 6 lakh net subscriber additions to 50.4 crore and higher ARPU of Rs 212 against Rs 209 in Q1. Retail growth is expected to remain soft, with revenues at Rs 84,600 crore (up 11 per cent YoY) and Ebitda at Rs 6,400 crore (up 13 per cent YoY), pushing margins to 7.6 per cent.

HPCL, BPCL, IOC
Nomura projected a steep sequential decline in OMC earnings, as lower marketing margins more than offset stronger refining performance. Ebitda is expected to fall 21 per cent QoQ for HPCL to Rs 6,020 crore, 16 per cent for BPCL to Rs 8,080 crore, and 15 per cent for IOCL to Rs 10,660 crore. Refining margins, however, are seen improving — HPCL at $7.3 per barrel against $3.1, BPCL at $5.6 (against $4.1), and IOCL at $6.2 (against $2.2), aided by inventory gains.

ONGC, OIL, GAIL 
Upstream producers are expected to post steady growth on higher oil and gas realizations and a weaker rupee. Nomura estimated ONGC’s Ebitda at Rs 19,900 crore, up 6 per cent QoQ, with crude realisations rising 2 per cent to $67.3 per barrel. Oil India's Ebitda is seen up 10 per cent QoQ to Rs 2,300 crore, supported by higher volumes and realizations of $67.4/bbl.

GAIL, PLNG, IGL, MGL, Gujarat Gas

Nomura sees mixed trends across the gas utilities space. GAIL’s Q2 Ebitda is estimated at Rs 3210 crore (down 4 per cent QoQ), as lower profitability in LPG, liquid hydrocarbons, and petchem segments offsets stable transmission and marketing. Petronet LNG (PLNG) is expected to post a 2 per cent sequential Ebitda rise to Rs 1,330 crore, supported by higher Dahej terminal utilization at 94 per cent.

Among city gas distributors, IGL and MGL are likely to report marginal sequential declines, while Gujarat Gas (GGL) could see a sharper 11 per cent drop in Ebitda due to price cuts and higher input costs.