Rs 63,000 cr gone! H-1B fee hike hits Infosys, TCS shares, but analysts remain unfazed

Top 10 Indian IT firms by market capitalisation, including TCS, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Wipro, LTIMindtree, Tech Mahindra, and Persistent Systems, saw their shares fall up to 6 per cent on Monday, reacting to the Trump administration’s H-1B visa fee hike. Collectively, these stocks lost around Rs 63,000 crore in market value. However, the impact was lower than Street expectations and IT stocks in fact recovered some of the lost ground due to clarity from the White House and the fact that any significant impact of visa fee hike is likely only in FY27.

TCS, India’s most valued IT stock, fell to a low of Rs 3,063.05 before recovering to Rs 3,104.35 by 10 am, down 2.07 per cent. Infosys dropped 1.88 per cent to Rs 1,511.30, hitting a low of Rs 1,480.05 earlier. Wipro declined 2.13 per cent to Rs 250.65, while HCL Tech slipped 1.56 per cent. LTIMindtree, Tech Mahindra, Persistent Systems, Coforge, and Mphasis also fell 2–3 per cent.

IT firms such as Coforge, Persistent Systems, Cyient, and Firstsource Solutions shared updates on the potential impact of the H-1B visa fee hike on their businesses, saying they expect the impact to be minimal. The combined m-cap of the top 10 IT stocks stood at Rs 29,86,704 crore today at 10 am against Rs 30,49,427 crore on Friday, down Rs 62,722 crore.

IIFL Securities said the White House clarifications offered major relief. “Though US business costs via the H-1B program will rise, they remain manageable. Our scenario analysis suggests the impact on EBIT margins could be 20–60 bps and on EPS 1.2–4.5 per cent, depending on hiring choices,” the brokerage noted.

Analysts highlighted that Indian IT companies’ visa dependency has reduced significantly over the past decade, with a higher offshore mix post-pandemic. This trend could continue, further limiting the H-1B fee impact. Companies with lower US exposure or lower onsite presence, like TCS, Coforge, SAGL, and INEG, are better positioned to absorb the change.

JM Financial called the hike a potential net positive, saying the regulatory uncertainty is largely behind, and the margin impact is likely negligible. Nuvama noted that if firms continue using H-1B workers at higher fees, margins could be impacted by 50–150 basis points. However, most companies are expected to limit H-1B hires to critical roles, keeping practical impact lower.

A secondary effect could be delays in ongoing deals and pipeline uncertainty. TCS leads Indian H-1B visa recipients with 5,505, followed by Infosys (2,004), LTIMindtree (1,844), HCL America (1,728), and Wipro (1,523), according to USCIS data. The first financial impact is expected only in FY27 petitions.

MOFSL noted that reduced new H-1B hires may lower onsite revenue but also onsite costs, potentially improving operating margins, while top-line growth could slow. Nuvama added that with the typical 3+3 year visa cycle, the $100,000 fee would apply only once in six years, making it economically unviable for many firms.

Overall, Indian IT companies are expected to mitigate the impact through nearshoring, offshoring, and local hiring, with long-term offshoring likely offsetting much of the cost increase.