Sensex, Nifty outlook for May 4, assembly election results day

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty on Thursday ended the truncated week on a weak note. Analysts said the market lacked direction and consolidated ahead of a public holiday, as investors awaited the outcome of assembly elections scheduled for Monday. 

At close, the Sensex was down 582.86 points, or 0.75 per cent, at 76,913.50. Nifty fell 180.10 points, or 0.74 per cent, to settle at 23,997.55. Stock exchanges NSE and BSE will be shut on Friday on account of Maharashtra Day.

Nifty outlook
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst, Angel One, India's third largest broking by active clients, noted that all four trading sessions of the week saw formation of small-bodied candles. On the weekly chart, this translated into a classical 'Doji' formation, indicating an indecision and a lack of a clear trend. 

"It appears that market participants are awaiting a decisive trigger, which could emerge from the state election results and further clarity on the geopolitical front. Despite the subdued weekly performance, the broader structure remains constructive," he said.

The month of April turned out to be strong, with Nifty gaining around 7.5 per cent, forming an Inside bar pattern around the long-term 50 EMA on the monthly chart. 

"Additionally, a bullish crossover in RSI on the weekly chart supports the positive undertone. Given this backdrop, the overall bias remains positive, and any dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities," Bhosale said.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse said the index has found strong support at its 21-DMA, placed around 23,800, and as long as it holds above this level, the pullback is likely to continue. 

"The immediate resistance is seen at the 50-DMA near 24,140; a decisive breakout above this could pave the way for an upside move towards 24,500. On the downside, a breach below 23,800 may drag the index towards 23,500 levels," he said. 

Meanwhile, the India VIX index declined 8 epr cent during the week to close around 18. A further easing in volatility would support the bullish momentum, Jain said.

Sensex outlook
Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities said the short-term market texture is volatile and non-directional. On the lower side, he said Sensex is consistently taking support near the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) at 76,700, while the 50-day SMA at 78,300 is seen acting as a consistent resistance zone for traders.

"We are of the view that as long as the market is trading within this range, non-directional activity is likely to continue. On the higher side, if the index succeeds in trading above 78,300, the chances of reaching 79,200 would increase. However, while below 76,700, selling pressure is likely to accelerate," he said.

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking said Sensex is in a consolidation range, reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum. He said immediate support for Sensex is placed in the 76,000–76,200 zone, which may act as a crucial demand area on declines. 

"On the upside, resistance for Sensex is seen around 77,500–77,700, where selling pressure is likely to emerge and cap further upside," he said.