Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 60 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian stocks markets are headed for a muted opening on Thursday amid the slew of muted global cues, weakness in the US and Asian stock markets, weekly expiry of the F&O contracts and slowdown concerns amid the tariff turmoil. Traders shall be staring at the Q4 earnings of India Inc along with the announcements by the US on reciprocal tariffs.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 60.50 points, or 0.26 per cent, lower at 23,373, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks opened mostly higher on Thursday, bucking the weakness in the US stocks, amid the tariff concerns.

In the Asian pack, Japan's Nikkei surged 0.78 per cent, while South Korean KOSPI rose about half a per cent. Australia's ASX 200 and New Zealand's DJ added up to 0.30-0.35 per cent each. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were marginally down in the early trade.

US stocks ended sharply lower on Wednesday as Nvidia warned about steep charges from new US curbs on its chip exports to China and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said US economic growth appears to be slowing. The Dow Jones fell 699.57 points, or 1.73 per cent, to 39,669.39, the S&P 500 lost 120.93 points, or 2.24 per cent, to 5,275.70 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 516.01 points, or 3.07 per cent, to 16,307.16.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, said that Indian markets are likely to open subdued on the back of soft global cues. WTO cuts global trade outlook and hawkish-leaning commentary from the US Fed, where Jerome Powell signalled that he was not in a rush to cut interest rates.

Oil prices extended gains on Thursday on the prospect of tighter supply after Washington imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade and as some OPEC producers pledged further output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas. Brent crude futures rose 0.5 per cent, to $66.19 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.7 per cent.

The dollar looked set to notch a fourth straight weekly loss on Thursday as tariffs drove investors from US assets, though it lifted off a seven-month low against the yen as US-Japan trade talks have so far steered clear of any currency discussion. The dollar index was parked at 99.5 and also set to notch a loss for the fourth week in a row.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that investors will be tracking the comments from the US Federal Reserve later today for insights into the status of the US economy, impact of trade tariffs and the future direction of interest rates.

"We expect continued positive momentum for Indian markets on the back of progress in US-India trade settlement as the two countries signed the terms of reference for the first part of the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,936.42 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,512.77 crore in the previous trading session.

Nifty Outlook
After a muted opening, the market found support near 23,275/76,550 and reversed sharply. On the daily charts, it has formed a bullish candle, and on the intraday charts, it is holding an uptrend continuation formation that is largely positive. For trend-following traders now, 23,275/76550 would be the key support zone, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"The market could maintain its positive momentum until 23,500/77,300. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the market to 23,575/77,500. On the flip side, if it falls below 23,275/76,550, the sentiment could change. A drop below this level could lead the market to retest the 23,200-23,150/76,500-76,200 range," he said.

Nifty closed above the 100-EMA for the second consecutive session on the daily charts. Support is now placed at 23,300, and a positive sentiment is likely to prevail as long as it remains above this level, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "A decisive fall below 23,300 might trigger a correction towards 23,150/23,000. Resistance is visible at 23,650 on the higher side."

Nifty Bank Outlook
The Nifty Bank index decisively breached the trend line resistance of 52,800 levels and formed a bullish candle on daily chart, indicating strength, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. "53,800–54,000 will be the next key resistance zone. As long as the index remains above 52,800, a 'buy on dips' approach remains prudent," he said.

"We expect Bank Nifty to maintain a positive bias and head towards 53,700-53,900 levels in the coming weeks being the previous major highs and price parity with its previous up move. Immediate bias remains positive and only a breach below the recent breakout area (52,000) can lead to some consolidation in the range of 51,000-52,000," said Bajaj Broking Research.