Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 96 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices shares are set to weak note on Friday ahead of the Reserve bank's policy decision, with markets awaiting guidance on growth and liquidity amid expectations of a rate pause. Meltdown continued in the global equities amid the rising AI concern from the megacaps.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 95.50 points, or 0.37 per cent, up at 25,629.50, hinting at a weak start for the domestic market on Friday. Global equities extended losses into a third day on Friday. KOSPI and Hang Seng lost more than a per cent, while Nikkei crept higher.

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday amid AI and IT stocks crash. The S&P 500 declined 1.23 per cent to end the session at 6,798.40 points. The Nasdaq declined 1.59 per cent to 22,540.59 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.20 per cent to 48,908.72 points.

US crude futures extended their decline on Friday, on track for their first weekly drop in weeks, as concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East eased with investors focusing on the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman later today. Brent crude futures dropped 0.74 per cent, to $67.05 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.77 a barrel, down 0.82 per cent.

The US dollar steadied near a two-week high on Friday, poised for its strongest weekly performance since November as a rout in stocks driven by AI-spending concerns rattled investors, while the yen firmed ahead of a national election on Sunday. The dollar index was at 97.961.

Despite lingering optimism around the India–US trade agreement, mixed global cues and profit booking dominated market action, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders are advised to remain selective, focus on stock-specific opportunities, and follow disciplined risk management given the possibility of further volatility."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,150.51 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyer of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,129.82 crore on a net-net basis.
 

RBI Policy outlook

RBI shall keep policy rates unchanged at the upcoming MPC meeting. Global conditions remain uncertain, particularly with respect to capital flows, currency movements, and evolving external risks, said Vinayak Magotra, Product Head &  Founding Team at Centricity WealthTech. "Any further rate cuts could potentially spur repatriation of rate-sensitive flows."

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

"We are of the view that the intraday market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,600/83,200 is dismissed below., said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "The market could then slip till 25,500-25,350/83,000-82,500. On the flip side, 25,800/83,800 would act as an immediate resistance zone. It could move up to 25,900-25,925/84,000-84,200."

A modest rebound followed in Nifty50, after which the index traded in a narrow range, indicating indecision and lack of strong directional momentum, said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking. "It eventually settled at 25,642.80, continuing to consolidate at elevated levels. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,750–25,800, while key support is seen in the 25,450–25,500."

The daily RSI continues to remain in positive territory. Going forward, the 25,480–25,500 zone remains a crucial support, while any pullback towards 25,875 is likely to face selling pressure. The index appears to be range-bound in the near term, while select individual stocks may outperform, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a small body candle with minor lower shadow. Looking ahead, the 59,600–59,500 zone will act as a key support area for it, said Sudeep Shah, Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "On the upside, the region between 60,300–60,400 remains the immediate resistance, and a breakout above this band may revive upward momentum."

Bank Nifty formed a small bear candle which remained contained inside previous session price range signaling consolidation amid stock specific action ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome. It has immediate support at 59,500-59,200 levels being the confluence of the 20- and 50-days EMA, Bajaj Broking said.

"It holding above the support area will keep the bias positive. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues and the upcoming RBI monetary policy announcement. Key short-term support is placed in the 58,500–58,000 zone being the confluence of the 100 days EMA and the bullish gap area of Tuesday," it added.