Suzlon Energy: Nuvama cuts share price target but upgrades stock to 'Buy' 

Nuvama Institutional Equities has trimmed its target price on Suzlon Energy Ltd  to Rs 60 apiece from Rs 66 earlier, even as the brokerage upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Hold' citing the recent price correction. It quoted CEO JP Chalasani saying wind energy is still cheaper than solar, even at Rs 3.60 per unit. In FY26, weighted average tariff during solar hours is Rs 1.88 and the value to buyer at Rs 2.5 per unit is only Rs 1.88.

"Weighted average tariff all day is still Rs 3.85 (slightly more than wind tie-ups at Rs 3.6–3.7). Standalone solar needs storage or wind, but standalone wind in the current market can still survive. Currently, Suzlon is the only Indian player that does not buy technology," Nuvama quoted Suzlon CEO as saying. 

Nuvama said India's power demand is expected to increase at a minimum of 5 per cent CAGR through 2047, 0.7–0.8 times GDP correlation, due to rising personal consumption, manufacturing mix of GDP growing to 34 per cent from 27 per cent, and new electrification vectors (EVs, green hydrogen, data centres) accounting for 30 per cent of demand. 

To meet fresh demand and begin thermal replacement, India must add 40GW+ of RE annually.  

Nuvama said the CEA has a base case targets 100GW wind by FY30E, of which 52GW is already installed and 42GW is under construction with 18GW of WTG orders yet to be placed. 

"All India annual additions are expected to be 6GW in FY26, 8–9GW in FY27E and 12GW/year by 2030E. Complex tenders (FDRE, RTC, RE + storage) now make up 70 per cent of mix in central auctions, driving wind demand for meeting morning peak demand (before sunrise). At 150m hub height, India's wind potential reaches 1,200GW versus 400GW estimates—hence paucity of sites is not a significant risk," Nuvama said.

Nuvama said India’s wind export potential was estimated at 10 per cent of global wind demand by FY30, with scope to scale beyond 20 per cent. Suzlon Energy had a presence across 17 markets with 5GW of historical installations. Its S144 platform was export-ready with only minimal non-capex adjustments required for certifications. Final export plans were expected to be placed by end-FY26E.

Key bottlenecks included the lag between PSA and PPA signing, delays in grid connectivity, and persistent land and right-of-way constraints. The government deployed de-bottlenecking measures such as resource-adequacy planning for states and the third GNA amendment, which reclaimed 22GW of prime wind sites that had been crowded out by solar. The ISTS waiver and a shift toward STU were expected to unlock additional state-level grid headroom.

On Tuesday, Suzlon Energy shares were trading 1.12 per cent lower at Rs 51.20 apiece.