Suzlon Energy share price: Buy, 43% upside possible, says MOFSL

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) placed a 'Buy' rating on Suzlon Energy with a target price of Rs 74, suggesting a strong 43 per cent upside potential over the prevailing price. The view followed the brokerage’s participation in Suzlon Energy’s Manufacturing Day on December 4–5, which included a visit to the company’s Pondicherry manufacturing facility and discussions with senior leadership, including co-founder and Vice-Chairman Girish Tanti and Chief Executive Officer JP Chalasani.

A strong pipeline and export readiness support long-term value creation, MOFSL said. 

Suzlon's management indicated that the slowdown in central renewable-energy auctions, where roughly 40 gigawatts of projects lack power purchase agreements, was unlikely to materially affect near-term order inflows. About 15 gigawatts of wind projects remained in the bidding or award pipeline. The possibility of cancellations or re-bidding of nearly 40 gigawatts of power purchase agreements—primarily in solar and solar-plus-storage—was viewed as signalling greater market realism and reaffirmed the need for wind energy as a balancing element in the generation mix.

MOFSL said Suzlon Energy’s approach of securing land parcels across approximately 23 gigawatts of potential wind sites was seen offering a strategic advantage, strengthening its position with large generation companies. The company expected exports to become an important growth engine, with its turbine platforms nearing export-ready status and further clarity anticipated in the coming quarters.

The management said India could install 10 gigawatts of wind capacity annually by financial year 2028, compared with an estimated 6.5–7 gigawatts run-rate in financial year 2026. Incremental demand from artificial-intelligence-driven data centres and rising commercial and industrial consumption were viewed as upside drivers to the national wind target of 100 gigawatts by 2030.

Suzlon Energy planned to expand manufacturing capacity through three new smart-blade plants—two in Gujarat and Karnataka, and a third location to be finalised within the next few months—to reduce turnaround time, improve proximity to customers and project sites, and enhance logistics efficiency.

The management reaffirmed the country’s long-term wind potential of 100 gigawatts by 2030. Suzlon Energy currently operates 4.5 gigawatts of annual manufacturing capacity with a workforce of 7,579. Advances in forecasting technology have raised generation-prediction accuracy to 98 per cent at 15-minute intervals, with efforts underway to move to 10-minute intervals.

India’s assessed wind potential stands at 1,142 gigawatts, of which only a small portion has been utilised. The nation’s installed wind base totals about 52 gigawatts, with confirmed orders for 24.4 gigawatts. Suzlon Energy holds roughly 6.2 gigawatts of these orders. A further 17.6 gigawatts of orders are yet to be placed, and around 6 gigawatts are awaiting tendering.

The Pondicherry turbine and nacelle-cover manufacturing facility has installed capacity of 2.8 gigawatts, equivalent to three sets per day for the 3.15 megawatt turbine platform. Only about one-third of the 66-acre site is currently utilised, and the plant produces one set per day with roughly 500 employees. A shift to a three-shift model, when required, could increase employment to about 1,500.

Suzlon's management believed India had the ecosystem required to become a major exporter of wind-energy equipment. According to the Global Wind Energy Council, India could represent 10 per cent of the global supply chain by 2030 and potentially 20 per cent by 2035. Suzlon Energy’s turbine platform is already largely compatible with international markets, requiring mainly grid-code and certification adjustments within a 12–18-month timeframe and without significant capital expenditure. Global wind installations are expected to expand about two-and-a-half times over the next five years.

Besides, the Suzlon management said auction activity in India had been running ahead of execution, with several power purchase agreements and power sale agreements still pending completion. Despite the temporary pause in new auctions, the company did not expect a meaningful impact on the sector’s overall growth trajectory. Improving grid connectivity at the state level and rising commercial and industrial demand are expected to support annual installations exceeding 10 gigawatts by 2028.

Suzlon Energy has identified around 23 gigawatts of viable sites, initiated land acquisition for 7–8 gigawatts, and plans to lift its share of engineering, procurement and construction activity from about 20 per cent currently to roughly 50 per cent by 2028.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services arrived at its target price of Rs 74 by applying a 30-times price-to-earnings multiple to financial year 2028 estimated earnings, broadly consistent with Suzlon Energy’s historical two-year forward multiple.

It said India’s renewable-energy capacity is projected to rise from about 180 gigawatts in financial year 2025 to roughly 1,600 gigawatts by 2047. Wind capacity during the same period is expected to increase from about 53 gigawatts to nearly 400 gigawatts. 

Also, power demand is forecast to grow about 5 per cent annually, driven by data centres, electric-vehicle adoption, green-hydrogen development and an expanding base of energy-intensive manufacturing. 

The removal of interstate-transmission-system waivers and the introduction of differentiated solar and non-solar hours under green-open-access reforms are expected to push procurement increasingly toward state-level mechanisms. Suzlon Energy’s turbine fleet, with more than 95 per cent meeting original lifecycle assumptions, positions the company for a multi-decade growth opportunity, MOFSL said.