Vedanta Aluminium dividend, Q1 results today: Net profit to rise 3x? Share price targets

Vedanta Aluminium Metal Ltd (VAML) is set to report its June quarter (Q1 FY27) results on Thursday. Analysts remain positive on the recently demerged Vedanta group company, expecting the Anil Agarwal-led aluminium producer to benefit from higher backward integration, improving cost efficiencies and favourable aluminium prices.

For the June quarter, Kotak Institutional Equities expects Vedanta Aluminium to report 194.70 per cent YoY (three times) rise in net profit at Rs 5,693.50 crore compared with Rs 1,932.30 crore in the year-ago quarter. Net sales are seen rising 37.5 per cent YoY to Rs 20,013.70 crore from Rs 14,556 crore.

"We forecast a 17.5 per cent QoQ increase in Ebitda (up 123 per cent YoY) primarily due to higher commodity prices in aluminium, partly offset by the company's hedging positions," Kotak said.

It forecast aluminum volumes of 0.63 million tons for the quarter, up 6.8 per cent YoY or 1.9 per cent QoQ, led by ramp up of new smelter capacity at BALCO.

ICICI Securities on July 27 said VAML is on the cusp of a structural earnings transformation, driven by a combination of higher volumes, backward integration, and an improving product mix. The company has guided for CoP below $1,500/te,
driven by 100 per cent captive coal integration and 90 per cent captive alumina with 60 per cent captive Bauxite.

"We expect aluminium volumes to increase to 2.9mnt in FY28, implying a CAGR of 9 per cent over FY26–28E. The ramp-up of captive alumina, bauxite and coal mines could further reduce input cost volatility and deliver incremental cost savings of $70/t over FY26–28E. Additionally, the share of VAP is expected to increase to 75 per cent from around 60 per cent currently, supporting higher realisations and EBITDA/te," the brokerage said.

While the brokerage did not offer Q1 preview, it expects VAML to deliver Ebitda of Rs 38,900 crore in FY28, a CAGR of 24 per cent over FY26–28. It also sees Ebitda/te of $1,429/t, a CAGR of 11 per cent.

Vedanta Aluminium dividend, concall timing

Meanwhile, along with quarterly results, the board of directors of the company, at its meeting scheduled to be held today, wil lconsider and approve the first Interim dividend, if any, on the equity shares for the Financial Year 2026-27. The company will host earnings conference call from 5 PM to 6:30 PM IST today.

Vedanta Aluminium target price

 Vedanta Alminimum has seen seven recommendations in July, with the highest target by Investec at Rs 630 and  the lowest target by ICICI Securities at Rs 520. Citi suggested a target of Rs 560, Emkay Global at Rs 550 and MOFSL and Nuvama at Rs 540 each. The consensus target stanbds at 564, implying 28 per cent potential upside.

"The froth in aluminium prices fizzled out last month with expectation of easing of traffic at the Strait of Hormuz and resumption of supply from West Asia. However, we are yet to observe anything on the ground. Fundamentally, the aluminium market remains in deficit until H1FY28, which is likely to keep aluminium prices firm. We believe full restoration of supply from West Asia shall happen by Q2FY28 and with incremental supply from Indonesia, the world aluminium market could turn into surplus in FY29," Nuvama said earlier this month.