Gold scales new peak as geopolitical tensions and rate-cut hopes lift demand; prices up 70% in 2025

Gold prices surged to fresh record highs on Tuesday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed uncertainty around global energy supplies. The rally came after the United States intensified efforts to seize tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, heightening concerns over supply disruptions and geopolitical fallout. Silver also traded near historic highs, reinforcing the broader bullish momentum across precious metals.

Over the past month alone, gold has climbed around 10%, while its gains for 2025 now stand at an impressive 70%. The sharp rise reflects growing investor anxiety driven by geopolitical flashpoints, slowing global growth signals and expectations of easier monetary policy in the United States.

International and Asian prices

In early Asian trading, spot gold touched an all-time high of $4,445.69 per ounce, underscoring strong global demand for safety amid uncertainty.

By 0041 GMT, spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,467.66 per ounce, after hitting another intraday record of $4,469.52 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 0.74% to $4,502.30 per ounce. Silver followed suit, with spot prices up 0.19% at $69.15 per ounce, after briefly touching a record $69.44 on Monday. On a year-to-date basis, silver has surged nearly 140%, significantly outperforming gold and edging closer to the psychologically important $70 mark.

Gold’s rally has been fuelled by a confluence of factors. Geopolitical and trade tensions remain elevated, central banks—particularly in emerging markets—continue to add to gold reserves, and markets are increasingly betting on lower U.S. interest rates in 2026. Traders are currently pricing in two rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve next year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, considered a potential successor to Chair Jerome Powell, recently indicated that there may still be room for further easing, a stance that has supported non-yielding assets such as gold.

Geopolitical risks have also intensified. The U.S. Coast Guard this month seized a sanctioned supertanker carrying Venezuelan oil and attempted to intercept two additional Venezuela-linked vessels over the weekend, according to U.S. authorities. These developments have added a fresh risk premium to commodity markets.

Prices in India

In India, gold prices remained elevated, mirroring global trends. Twenty-four-carat gold was trading at Rs 13,616 per gram, while 22-carat gold stood at Rs 12,481 per gram and 18-carat gold at ₹10,212 per gram, according to market data. Domestic prices have been supported by firm global cues and steady investment demand, despite prices hovering near record levels.

Market participants say the strength in bullion prices reflects a mix of macroeconomic and technical factors. Rahul Kalantri, Vice President of Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd, noted that safe-haven buying has dominated a holiday-shortened trading week. He added that intensifying U.S.-Venezuela tensions, recent geopolitical incidents involving Russia, cooling U.S. inflation data and a lack of surprises from the Bank of Japan have all contributed to the rally. According to Kalantri, gold faces support in the $4,430–4,285 range, with resistance at $4,510–4,545, while silver’s key resistance lies near the $70–70.90 zone.