Union Budget 2026: Tata Steel, NALCO, SAIL, Hindalco shares may be impacted; here's why

The upcoming Budget 2026 on February 1 is expected to propose higher allocation for infrastructure and  construction in the Indian economy. This is expected to drive more demand for aluminium and steel. Shares such as Tata Steel, NALCO, SAIL and Hindalco are expected to be the  likely beneficiaries from the metal and mining sector after Budget 2026.

Axis Direct in its Budget expectations has listed five major steps that could lead to more demand & production of metals leading to a boost for the infra sector in the Indian economy.

Mining Policy to Cut Imports

The budget is expected to introduce a new policy aimed at reducing import dependence by enhancing domestic production of silver, copper, and zinc. The emphasis will be on fostering greater involvement of the private sector in mining and processing, in addition to providing incentives to enhance silver recovery as a by-product, thereby supporting the "Make in India" initiative.

FULL COVERAGE:  Union Budget 2026

Building a Domestic Rare Earth Supply Chain

The government wants to establish a long-term domestic ecosystem for rare earth elements (REEs) in order to ensure supply chains for high-tech industries like electronics and electric vehicles. In order to lessen long-term reliance on foreign suppliers, the budget may include initial incentives for exploration and refining because REE mining is a complicated, multi-year process.

Steel Industry

The Budget 2026 is expected to introduce fiscal incentives for hydrogen-based DRI technologies and provide concessional green financing to support decarbonisation. Promote iron ore beneficiation, remove import duties on critical raw materials, and rationalise royalty calculations to eliminate double taxation.

Higher Import Duties and Stricter Scrap Norms

The Aluminium Association of India (AAI) has called on the government to raise the basic customs duty on all aluminium products—including primary, downstream products and scrap—to a uniform 15% from the current 7.5% to prevent India from becoming a dumping ground. It has also recommended the introduction of stringent quality standards for aluminium scrap.

Import Duties and Restrictions on Copper

The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) has urged the government to impose a 3% safeguard duty on imports of copper cathodes, rods, wires, and tubes, irrespective of FTA status. It has also called for correction of the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) under the India–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to curb the surge in imports, along with quantitative restrictions to protect the domestic smelting and refining industry amid the collapse in TC/RC

In the Union Budget 2025-26 , the government prioritised infrastructure sector with a capital investment outlay of Rs 11.21 lakh crore, representing 3.1% of GDP. The sustained investment was aimed to drive economic growth through urban development,, improved connectivity, and a focus on "Cities as Growth Hubs".

The capital expenditure was heavily focused on roads, highways, and railways to boost long-term growth.