The Budget countdown officially begins in Parliament today, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman set to present the Economic Survey 2026 during the Budget session. The document is expected to be laid before both Houses between 11 am and 12 pm on January 29, 2026, offering the government’s broad reading of India’s economic position just days before the Union Budget.
Soon after the Survey is tabled, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran is expected to address the media and outline key takeaways from the report.
What the Economic Survey does and why it matters
Published ahead of the Union Budget, the Economic Survey functions as the Finance Ministry’s annual stocktake of the economy. Prepared by the Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance, it lays out the Centre’s view on growth, macro stability and key challenges, and often signals the thinking that shapes upcoming Budget decisions.
The usual themes inside the Survey
While the focus areas vary each year, the Survey typically maps out:
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GDP growth trends and drivers
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Inflation movements and monetary policy context
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Fiscal position and government finances
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External sector performance
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Social indicators such as jobs, health and education
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Special chapters tracking emerging issues and new policy themes
Because it lands right before the Budget, the Survey is closely watched for its framing, especially the way it positions India’s economic priorities before fresh policy announcements.
Growth expectations: 7.4% in focus
India could post 7.4% growth, according to a PTI report, higher than last year’s pre-Budget Survey projection of 6.3% to 6.8%. Investors and analysts are expected to track the Survey’s language on global headwinds, fiscal consolidation plans and sector-specific trends, given their influence on sentiment across equities, bonds and currency markets.
The Survey’s policy suggestions are not binding, but they often help set the narrative and shape the assumptions that guide Budget choices and subsequent economic messaging.
How Survey projections have matched actual growth in recent years
A compilation comparing Economic Survey projections with actual GDP outcomes suggests the forecasts have been a mixed bag in recent years. In FY24, growth was reported at 9.2%, well above the Survey’s projected range of 6%–6.8%. FY25, however, tracked the official estimate more closely, with the economy expanding 6.5%, broadly in line with the 6.5%–7% band.
FY23 fell short of expectations, with growth at 7.6% against the Survey’s 8%–8.5% projection. In FY22, GDP rose 9.7%, largely due to base effects, though the Survey did not issue a formal forecast due to pandemic-related uncertainty. FY21, meanwhile, saw the economy shrink by 5.8% amid COVID-19 disruptions and nationwide lockdowns.
(With inputs from PTI)
