A Taiwan preview? China’s covert support reshaping the Ukraine war, warns geostrategist

China is quietly moving from the sidelines of the Ukraine conflict into the heart of Russia’s war-fighting infrastructure, marking what geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova describes as the “Second Phase” of the DragonBear’s strategic partnership.

In a detailed analysis posted on X (formally twitter), Tchakarova argues that Beijing’s involvement has evolved from political signalling to material co-production — with ramifications that stretch far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. 

At the centre of the shift is an FT investigation revealing that a Chinese businessman has acquired a 5% stake in Rustakt, a key Russian drone manufacturer. More telling, Tchakarova notes, is the scale and precision of Chinese inputs: over $400 million worth of motors, batteries, controllers, optics and other components shipped directly into Russia’s drone ecosystem; machine tools and microchips that now account for up to 90% of Moscow’s dependency on Chinese suppliers; and teams of Chinese engineers making on-site visits to Russian weapons facilities. 

The collaboration, she emphasises, is not a formal alliance but a “silent co-production” model — a hallmark of the DragonBear strategy she has long tracked. After the revelations surfaced, Russian entities swiftly deleted shareholder records, further reinforcing the covert nature of the partnership. 

War machine  

While Russia pursues its assault on Ukraine and wages a hybrid campaign against the European security order, China is increasingly shaping and sustaining the underlying war economy. For Beijing, the Ukraine conflict is not a distant geopolitical event but a live laboratory — one that weakens Europe while offering China invaluable insights into running an industrial war under sanctions. 

“China supplies, shapes the process, and benefits,” Tchakarova writes, arguing that Europe must confront an uncomfortable truth: the war in Ukraine is now structurally tied to China’s rise and its long-term strategic competition with the West. 

Europe’s strategic ambiguity  

For years, the EU has treated China as a “partner-rival-systemic competitor.” But this balancing act is becoming untenable in the face of Chinese-backed drones striking Ukrainian positions — materiel sourced, financed, or engineered with Beijing’s support. 

“When your soldiers and Ukrainian partners are hit by drones whose components and capital originate in China, the ambiguity becomes strategically unsustainable,” she warns. 

Tchakarova urges Europe to stop treating the Ukraine war and China policy as separate theatres. What is unfolding, she insists, is a new Cold War — not between Washington and Beijing alone, but between the US and the emerging DragonBear axis, with Europe caught flat-footed. 

A preview of Taiwan’s Future? 

Perhaps the most consequential element of Tchakarova’s analysis is its projection outward: the Russia case provides China with real-time lessons on circumventing sanctions, stockpiling critical components, diversifying suppliers, and building resilient wartime supply chains. 

Beijing could deploy these insights in a future drone-saturated, maritime-air campaign around Taiwan, backed by an industrial ecosystem already tested under pressure. 

“The experience gained from sustaining Russia’s drone war,” she notes, “can be transferred to a future Taiwan scenario.” 

Strategic inflection point 

Tchakarova’s warning is clear: the DragonBear partnership is no longer theoretical or symbolic. It is operational, industrial and strategically disruptive. Europe, she argues, must recalibrate its worldview — not tomorrow, not in a policy paper, but now. 

The Ukraine war has become a hinge in global geopolitics. And China, she suggests, is no longer watching from the wings. It is wiring itself into the machinery of conflict — with implications the West can no longer afford to ignore.