Did Trump’s Venezuela move just change China’s Taiwan equation? Analyst sees strategic shock for Beijing

A dramatic shift in US policy toward Venezuela — coupled with moves to support Iran’s opposition — may have quietly disrupted China’s strategic planning for a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to a new analysis shared by strategy analyst J Michael Waller. 

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Waller argued that recent actions under President Donald Trump could have constrained Beijing’s access to critical energy supplies, undermining the economic and military conditions China would require to launch a major conflict in the Indo-Pacific. 

“By acting in Venezuela and aiding the Iranian opposition, @realDonaldTrump might have prevented an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan,” Waller wrote. 

At the core of Waller’s argument is China’s heavy dependence on oil imports that lie outside US influence — a vulnerability he says Washington has now exploited. 

China’s energy dependence 

According to Waller, China currently sources between 60% and 90% of Venezuela’s oil exports and roughly 85% to 90% of Iran’s crude. Together, those supplies account for an estimated 30% to 35% of China’s total oil imports. 

An additional 35% of China’s oil, he said, comes from Arab suppliers that remain subject to US diplomatic leverage or strategic pressure. 

“With new governments in Venezuela and Iran, the US will be able to regulate up to 70% of the Chinese Communist Party’s present-day oil needs,” Waller wrote, arguing that such control fundamentally alters Beijing’s risk calculations. 

“CCP war planners cannot execute against Taiwan under those conditions.” 

Strategic ripples across the globe 

Waller suggested that the implications extend far beyond energy markets, potentially reshaping global power balances. 

Among the possible consequences he outlined: 

• Disruption of Chinese plans regarding Taiwan, including any attempt to seize control of its world-leading semiconductor and AI chip manufacturing capacity. 
• A major setback to Beijing’s ambitions in Latin America, where Venezuela has served as a key foothold. 
• Political fallout for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is already navigating a sensitive internal military purge and “cannot afford to look weak.” 
• Increased leverage for China over Russia, as the loss of discounted Venezuelan oil could push Beijing to demand steeper price cuts from Moscow, raising the economic cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 
• Enhanced U.S. capacity to meet treaty obligations, particularly in Europe, as pressure in the Indo-Pacific eases. 
• A potential intelligence windfall, with access to information about corruption networks tied to Venezuela’s former political system and their international reach. 

Breathing room for Washington 

Waller concluded that constraining China’s energy lifelines could buy the United States valuable time — reducing immediate pressure in the Indo-Pacific while strengthening Washington’s ability to uphold NATO commitments in Europe. 

“This takes pressure off the US in the Indo-Pacific for a while,” he wrote, calling the outcome a net strategic gain for American global posture.