OPEC+ raises output by 188,000 bpd after UAE exit, tests market stability amid war 

OPEC+ has agreed an increase in oil output of 188,000 barrels per day, the group said on May 3, marking its first production decision since the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the grouping. 

The seven-member alliance will raise June production by slightly less than May’s 206,000 bpd increase, with the latest adjustment excluding the UAE’s share following its formal departure on May 1. The remaining producers include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. 

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” OPEC said in its statement. 

The decision comes at a time when global oil supply remains under strain. Since the Iran war began on February 28, flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global oil and gas shipments — have been effectively choked, tightening supply conditions. 

Despite the constraints, oil prices showed signs of easing on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Prices declined on Friday after Iran submitted a revised peace proposal via mediators in Pakistan, raising expectations of a possible settlement with the US. 

US crude futures dropped 3% to settle at $101.94 per barrel, while Brent crude fell nearly 2% to $108.17. Even with the pullback, both benchmarks remain sharply elevated — up nearly 78% since the start of 2026. 

US President Donald Trump said he had been briefed on the outline of a potential deal with Iran but was awaiting final details, cautioning that military action could resume if Tehran fails to comply. 

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official indicated that Tehran’s proposal — so far rejected by Washington — includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the US blockade, while deferring discussions on its nuclear programme. 

The supply outlook has been further complicated by the UAE’s unexpected exit. The Gulf nation said it undertook a comprehensive review before concluding that leaving the cartel aligned with its national interests. 

The UAE, a member for nearly six decades, had been OPEC’s third-largest producer as recently as February, trailing only Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Its departure marks a significant shift in the bloc’s structure at a time of heightened market uncertainty.