Russia’s energy tax revenues slump to lowest level since 2020, says geostrategist

Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova has flagged a sharp drop in Russia’s oil and gas revenues, calling the latest figures an “anti-record” that underscores mounting fiscal pressure on Moscow.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Tchakarova said Russia’s total oil and gas tax revenues fell to 393.3 billion rubles in January 2026, marking a 50% decline from 789 billion rubles recorded in January 2025. The January figure was also 12% lower than December’s collections and represents the lowest nominal level since mid-2020.

Crucially, the revenue intake fell well short of the 576 billion ruble baseline needed to cover planned budget expenditures. As a result, Russia generated no additional oil and gas revenues for the month, a key metric for fiscal stability given the sector’s outsized role in funding the federal budget.

Tchakarova stressed that the slump reflects more than just lower export volumes. “This is not only a volume shock, but also a collapse in fiscal efficiency per barrel,” she wrote, attributing the decline to a combination of low global oil prices, sustained price discounts on Russian crude, and adverse currency effects.

Her comments prompted debate online, with one user claiming the revenue fall was driven by India reducing its sourcing of Russian crude oil from around 40% to 23%, with a further cut to 10% expected in the coming months.

Tchakarova pushed back on that interpretation, saying the claim was incorrect. “That’s not the reason for sure. You are mixing January’s numbers with the annual oil & gas revenues from last year,” she replied. She added that she would provide a detailed brief for her subscribers on the issue, including the impact of a potential US-India deal and its implications for Russian oil exports.

Another user questioned, “Will this change Putin's behavior and persuade him to end the war against Ukraine? If the state coffers are empty, who will pay the bills? War is extremely expensive!”

Tchakarova replied, “There will be likely an agreement to freeze the conflict in 2026 like I outlined already in my scenario planning last year. It‘s inevitable to happen due to the interplay of all variables.”