'Stunning gains in 17 days': US professor says Iran is more powerful now than before the war

 A US security scholar said on Tuesday that Iran has become more powerful now than before the war, which began on February 28.

Robert Pape, professor at the University of Chicago and founding director of the Chicago Project on Security & Threats, wrote that the disruption to the key oil shipping route had strengthened Tehran's position.

Also read: West Asia War: Container train operators seek relief as cargo shipments hit

"It (Iran) controls the price of world oil and is more likely to fracture the US coalition than the US is to grow it. Stunning gains in 17 days," the professor wrote on X.

Also read: Youth in labour market: Graduate unemployment remains high in India

Pape shared a chart that shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply since the start of the conflict. According to data from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) based on Clarksons Research Shipping Intelligence Network, the strait typically saw an average of about 129 ships per day between February 1 and February 27.

On February 27, traffic was still at 141 ships. However, after the escalation at the end of February, daily transits collapsed. By March 1, the number had fallen to 81 ships, and within days it plunged further to 20, then 10, and even as low as 3 ships on one day.

In the following days, traffic remained extremely limited, fluctuating between 4 and 6 vessels per day, indicating that commercial shipping through one of the world's most critical oil routes has effectively come to a near standstill.

Following joint US and Israeli strikes, Iran has restricted movement through Hormuz, allowing only selected ships to pass. However, despite the disruption, Tehran has continued exporting oil, largely to China, while allowing some vessels bound for specific countries to transit the waterway.

Since the war began, India has received two liquefied petroleum gas cargoes, while a third shipment carrying crude is currently on its way.

The Financial Times has reported that Tehran could be earning more than $140 million per day from oil sales as global crude prices rise and enforcement against Iranian shipments has eased. Most of Iran's oil exports are currently directed to China.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Iranian oil tankers were passing through the Strait of Hormuz. "The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we've let that happen to supply the rest of the world," Bessent told CNBC in an interview in Paris.

Iran continues to export roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, even as tanker traffic through the strait has fallen sharply. "We think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are letting out, and for now, we're fine with that. We want the world to be well supplied," Bessent said.