BlackRock CEO warns US may already be in recession as markets reel from tariff fallout

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink isn’t mincing words. Speaking to CNBC, Fink said the US may already be in a recession — or at least teetering on the edge of one. “I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now,” he warned. His comments follow a turbulent week in markets, triggered by President Donald Trump’s rollout of sweeping tariffs. While Trump has since paused some of those levies for 90 days, Fink said that’s not enough to calm economic nerves.

“I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty,” Fink said on April 11.

He noted that consumer behavior might be skewing the picture — some buyers could be front-loading purchases to get ahead of potential price hikes from the tariffs. That, Fink suggested, could be “masking some underlying economic weakness.” Despite his concerns, he stopped short of calling this a financial crisis and pointed to long-term drivers like artificial intelligence as ongoing “megatrends” that continue to shape the economy, CNBC reported.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has dialed back its recession forecast after Trump’s announcement on Truth Social that the new tariffs would be delayed. Earlier that same day, Goldman had pegged the odds of a recession at 65 per cent following the introduction of new country-specific tariffs. But by the afternoon, with a 90-day pause in place, the investment bank reversed course — for now.

Still, Goldman Sachs isn’t overly optimistic. It expects the US economy to grow just 0.5 per cent in 2025. JPMorgan, which hiked its recession odds to 60 per cent last week, echoed the sentiment, warning of continued risks despite the temporary tariff truce.

Citigroup’s economists also poured cold water on hopes of a rebound, noting that the pause in reciprocal tariffs doesn’t take recession risk off the table.

Adding to the cloudy outlook, JPMorgan Chief US Economist Michael Feroli expects the Federal Reserve to delay any interest rate cuts until September, further signaling caution in the months ahead.