
Predicting currency and oil prices is always tricky, but there are clear signals emerging for the rupee. A major reason behind the recent depreciation has been heavy foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, with nearly $20 billion exiting in the last financial year—putting pressure on forex reserves. However, at current levels, experts believe the worst may be behind us in the short term, suggesting a possible bottom formation. That said, the long-term trend of gradual depreciation against the dollar is likely to continue. With global trade slowly diversifying away from the dollar due to geopolitical shifts, the pace of depreciation may ease going forward. For now, the rupee appears to be finding some stability.