
In this exclusive conversation with Business Today TV, IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra breaks down India’s revised monsoon forecast and the growing El Niño threat. IMD has now lowered the 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average, warning of below normal rainfall across large parts of the country. Could rainfall slip even lower? Is India staring at drought risks? Which states may still receive normal or above normal rain? Dr. Mohapatra explains the uncertainty around the forecast, the possible impact of moderate to strong El Niño conditions from July onwards, and whether monsoon onset could get delayed. This is a crucial update for investors, farmers, policymakers and consumers tracking inflation, agriculture and economic growth in India.