COVID-19 fourth wave to hit India soon? Here's what experts say

India has been witnessing a steady rise in COVID-19 cases for a couple of weeks now with many fearing a looming probability of a fourth wave. 

The country on Wednesday recorded 2,927 fresh infections pushing the total case tally to 4,30,65,496. Cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru have been seeing a sudden spurt in COVID cases. 

Delhi reported 1,204 new coronavirus cases and one fatality, according to data shared by the health department on Tuesday. This was the fifth consecutive day that the capital recorded over 1,000 fresh cases in a single day. 

Mumbai also witnessed the biggest jump in COVID cases in nearly two months. As many as 102 more people tested positive across the city in the last 24 hours, taking the infection tally to 10,59,433, said the city civic department on Tuesday.

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This is the biggest hike in new COVID infections in Mumbai since February 27, when it registered 103 cases. Thereafter, the city has been logging new cases in double-digits, barring March 2 when 100 new infections were reported. 

A week ago, COVID infections had surged by 90 per cent in India, owing to a spurt in cases in Delhi and Haryana, and Kerala registered its COVID number after four days. The rising cases in addition to the dominance of the BA.2 variant of Omicron in India, have sparked concerns about the fourth wave of COVID-19 in the country. 

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will interact with chief ministers on the emerging COVID-19 situation in the country on Wednesday through video conferencing. PM Modi will chair the meeting to assess the current situation across the country. According to Prime Minister's Office (PMO), the virtual meeting will be held at 12 pm. 

Should India be bracing for a fourth wave? Here's what experts have to say 

Although there are indicators the country needs to watch out for, experts opine that it is unlikely that the present scenario will result in a wave as deadly as the one caused by the Delta variant of COVID-19 during the months from April to June in 2021. 

They also state that the recent spurt in cases is because of factors comprising of dwindling vaccine immunity and the lifting of the COVID curbs in most parts of the country. 

According to eminent virologist and former Christian Medical College (CMC) Vellore professor Dr T Jacob John, the likelihood of a fourth COVID-19 wave in the country is "extremely low", however, people should continue to wear masks in public places, he added. 

"If a fourth wave comes it will be a total surprise to me. Therefore, I cannot guess anything about it. The probability of a fourth wave is extremely low. Our best defence against the ill effects of a wave is very high coverage of vaccination," ANI quoted Dr John as saying. 

Stressing on the need to check for any surge in COVID cases, he noted that full vaccination means two doses in addition to a precautionary dose at least six months later. Dr John further stated that the official version of two doses as full vaccination is unscientific. 

Talking about the spurt being witnessed in some states, he stated that Delhi and Haryana had minor rise in COVID numbers over the last two to three weeks, however, the rise was not being sustained. 

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"To my knowledge, no state is reporting a surge in Covid-19 cases. India remains with low and relatively steady numbers throughout March and April so far," said Dr John.  

"Delhi and Haryana had minor increases in the last two to three weeks but the increase is not being sustained. One thousand cases in Delhi is equal to just five per lakh population. During the "endemic" phase, which is applicable to India, we must not expect a continuous decline in numbers at all. Continuous falls cannot occur because the end of such a graph is zero," he added. 

When asked about the measures that should be taken to control this surge, Dr John noted that "not using the mask is the number one culprit." The virologist was also not in favour of shutting schools.  

"Not at all. Schools should remain open. During the 'endemic phase' which is our present as well as future, we will find an occasional case which should be dealt with in a case-by-case manner," he said. 

Earlier, eminent cardiac surgeon Dr Devi Prasad Shetty had also stated that there is no need to panic or fear now and that the emphasis should be on the number of hospitalisations. 

"Third wave was not that serious, so there is no need to fear or have panic reactions. We should only go by the number of patients admitted in hospital. One lakh people or 50,000 people getting positive does not mean anything," he said on April 25. 

"The whole country may be positive, but if there are no Covid patients in hospital, it doesn't make any difference. So, concentration should be on the number of patients in the hospital, not the positivity," Dr Shetty added. 

There has also been misinformation being spread in the wake of uncertainty over the rising COVID infections, reports indicated. 

"The gradual rise in cases makes everyone think that another COVID wave is round the corner. In panic, people are making hasty decisions," Dr Sushila Kataria, an internal medicine specialist in New Delhi told India Today. 

Noticing the same trend, Dr T. Chandrashekhar, chief of internal medicine at Fortis Hospital, Vashi, Navi Mumbai. also stated, "We saw the impact of misinformation during the pandemic. People read headlines and make decisions before waiting for science or medicine to offer the right advice."