India sees 114% rise in Covid-19 deaths, 437% rise in cases in 28 days, Omicron variant XBB.1.16 behind the surge, warns WHO

India recorded over 114 per cent rise in Covid-19 deaths and 437 per cent spike in cases in the last 28 days, showed the epidemiological report released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday.

The report states that the South-East Asia Region reported over 27,000 new cases, a 152 per cent increase as compared to the previous 28-day period, with the highest proportional increase observed in India (18,130 versus 3,378 new cases) followed by the Maldives (129 per cent) and Nepal (89 per cent). Similarly, India reported at least 62 new deaths which, means 114 per cent rise with 1 new death per 100,000.

The WHO is monitoring the new Omicron variant XBB.1.16 in India which is believed to be behind the sudden surge of the cases. Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for the Covid-19 response at WHO, said that there are about 800 sequences of Omicron variant XBB.1.16 from 22 countries. Most of the sequences are from India and in India XBB.1.16 has replaced the other variants that are in circulation.

“XBB.1.16 is actually very similar in profile to XBB.1.5 (Omicron subvariant). It has one additional mutational mutation in the spike protein, which in lab studies shows increase infectivity, as well as potential increased pathogenicity (property of causing disease). It has been in circulation for a few months,” she said.

Public health experts have said that the symptoms of this new variant are mostly low-grade flu-like. People may experience symptoms in the upper and lower respiratory tract. In terms of upper respiratory tract symptoms, people may experience nasal discharge, a sore throat, a slow-rising fever that lasts for one or two days, and loss of smell.

“In case of these symptoms, it is recommended to get tested for Covid. For lower respiratory tract symptoms, people may suffer from severe bronchitis and cough. This new variant is different from others in the sense that it spreads faster than other variants. However, hospitalization rates are very low and can be managed at home,” said Dr Kuldeep Kumar Grover, head of critical care and pulmonology at CK Birla Hospital.

Grover explained that in recent times, people who have been vaccinated and exposed to natural infection during the last Covid waves are developing strong immunity against the virus, which is called hybrid immunity. In hybrid immunity, the body develops antibodies that help fight against mutations of the virus. It has been seen that Covid cases are rising, but they will not lead to massive hospitalizations because of hybrid immunity. “However, it is recommended to follow Covid-related behaviour during the surge of new variants and influenza. People should wash their hands, wear masks, and avoid social gatherings to prevent the spread of any virus. People with symptoms like cough and cold should avoid meeting people so that the infection is not transmitted to healthy individuals,” said Grover.

India reported a massive rise of 3,095 new cases in the last 24 hours with a daily positivity rate of 2.61 per cent. Concerned over the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the country, the central government has been taking stock of the situation in the states.

According to the data released by the union health ministry, the weekly positivity in Maharashtra has gone up to 4.58 per cent as on March 24, 2023 from 0.54 per cent in the week ending March 3, 2023. In Gujarat, it has increased to 2.17 per cent from 0.07 per cent. In Kerala, weekly positivity shot up to 4.51 from 1.47 per cent. Karnataka witnessed average weekly positivity rise up to 3.05 per cent from 1.65 per cent while Delhi has seen weekly positivity rise to 4.25 per cent from 0.53 per cent. Similarly, Himachal Pradesh witnessed weekly positivity increase to 7.48 from 1.92 per cent. In Rajasthan, it has increased from 0.12 to 1.62 per cent and Tamil Nadu reported an increase in weekly positivity from 0.46 to 2.40 per cent in the same time period.

At least 22 States/UTs are reporting average daily tests per million (TPM) less than the national average. The central government said that 24 districts in India are reporting more than 10 per cent weekly positivity in the week ending 24th March, 2023, while 43 districts are reporting weekly positivity between 5-10 per cent in the same time period.

“The sudden surge of cases throughout India is being seen. The main reason is the new variant of concern of covid-19. The symptoms are mild but a lot of patients are coming up with superimposed pneumonia. Other common reason is the low coverage of precautionary vaccine among the people which is less than 30 per cent,” said Dr Rahul Sharma, Additional Director, Pulmonology and Critical Care, Fortis Hospital Noida.