'Prashant Kishor will make some dent, but...': Pradeep Gupta's prediction for Bihar 

Axis MyIndia chief Pradeep Gupta has said that while poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor may influence the outcome in some seats in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, his Jan Suraaj Party remains far from being in a position to form the government.

"As far as Prashant Kishor is concerned, I feel this time he may indeed make a dent on some seats. But forming a government is still far away," Gupta told news agency ANI. "Prashant Kishor himself says this. When journalists on the ground asked him, he replied that either he would win fewer than 10 seats-basically nothing-or he will win a majority." 

The pollster said that the parties take nearly 15 years for significant results. "In life, when you want to graduate, it takes 15 years. Take the example of the BJP. They started in 1980 and were able to form a government only in 1996, that too a coalition. Whatever examples you look at, you'll find the same."

The Jan Suraaj Party, launched by Kishor, plans to contest all 243 assembly seats in Bihar, making it a three-cornered fight alongside the JD(U)-BJP alliance and the Mahagathbandhan. In its first electoral test last year, the party failed to win any of the four bypoll seats it contested, with three candidates losing deposits, though it secured some votes in Imamganj.

Asked about the impact of Kishor's candidates, Gupta said, "Yes, he will definitely cut votes. But the question is: how many and on which seats? That's the real issue. There's no doubt he will take away votes. The question is how much-because some seats are such that victory and defeat are decided by just 2–4% of the vote share. At the very least, a party should have more than 5%."

Gupta noted that Kishor has built momentum through two years of statewide travel. "He has been working for two years, traveling around, so he has built a good momentum. But rallies and actual votes are two different things. What I want to say is, there is one player-but bigger than any player is the real player, the people. In such a large state, spread across 243 Assembly seats, it's not easy to convince everyone at once."

Kishor himself has made bold predictions, ruling out a return for the NDA and declaring in July that Nitish Kumar will not remain Chief Minister after November. He even pledged to quit politics if JD(U) wins more than 25 seats.

On whether Kishor is overrated, Gupta replied, "I want to repeat two things: one is the media, the other is political parties. Since 2012, he has been visible to the media and political parties, traveling and engaging. So, it seems he has that presence. But as I said, reaching 8 crore people-that takes time. I'm not saying he is good or bad. It takes time."

In the 2020 assembly elections, the NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), won 125 seats out of 243, with the BJP emerging stronger at 74 seats, while JD(U) fell to 43.