'Urban Bengal's birth rate looks like Korea': Sanjeev Sanyal says shut all population control departments immediately

India's fertility rate has already fallen below replacement levels and is continuing to decline sharply across most states — including Himachal and urban Bengal, where birth rates now resemble South Korea's, economist Sanjeev Sanyal has said.

In an interview with Mint, the PM's Economic Advisory Council member called for the immediate shutdown of all population control departments, calling them "outdated".

"Our fertility rates as a country are collapsing — not just the southern states. In fact, if it hadn't been for Bihar and UP, we would be way below replacement rates. Even now we are already below replacement level," Sanyal said. "Bengal has fertility rates which are even lower than those of the southern states. Urban Bengal’s birth rate looks like Korea. Kolkata's birth rate is about 1.2 or something like that. It is very, very low and ridiculously low."

Calling the current institutional approach outdated, Sanyal said: "We still have population control mechanisms in this country. We need to shut down all our population control departments across the country. They're outdated. They need to be shut down — even in Bihar and UP." 

He said much of India's current population growth is due to increased life expectancy, not high birth rates. "We are already 15 years past our peak in terms of the number of babies in this country," he noted. "Our problem now is that in parts of the country, we have to shut down schools...they don't have enough children."

Sanyal pointed out that this demographic trend is not limited to the South. "It is also true of Himachal Pradesh and many other places...there are many parts of the country, maybe more than half, where if you do not close and merge schools, they don't have enough children to form a critical mass."

He warned that India is on track to become an ageing country by the time it becomes Viksit Bharat by 2047. "When we reach Viksit Bharat by 2047, we will be an aging country. That is something we cannot debate because the workforce of that time is already born." 

Comparing India's trajectory to China's current struggle with demographic reversal, Sanyal said, "Even if today China tries to reverse things - let us say they somehow manage to convince Chinese women to all have three kids each from tomorrow morning - their workforce will only show effect in 25 years plus because that kid born today will enter the workforce in his early 20s around about 2050." 

And to support that baby boom, Sanyal added, they'll have to withdraw a significant proportion of their female workforce. "It'll actually worsen the pressure on production." 

The economist said that no country so far in the world has managed to reverse its birth rates in any sustainable way. "So rather than complain about Bihar and UP, the other states should find ways of increasing their birth rates."

A UN report, which came out earlier this month, noted that India's total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 — below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. The 2025 State of World Population report warned against panic over falling fertility and instead urged governments to focus on helping people meet their reproductive goals, as "millions are not able to realise their real fertility goals".