Was the $2.4B IMF bailout the off-ramp for Pakistan or the price of survival under fire?

The International Monetary Fund’s $2.4 billion bailout package for Pakistan may have done more than stave off an economic meltdown — it likely helped avert war. On Friday, the IMF approved the crucial loan despite objections from India, which accused Pakistan of cross-border aggression amid escalating military tensions.

The bailout — including $1 billion from an existing program and a fresh $1.4 billion climate resilience loan — was a make-or-break moment for Islamabad. The funds stabilized Pakistan’s foreign reserves and helped it meet looming debt repayments. But sources now say Washington's greenlight came with a quiet condition: peace.

According to sources cited by India Today TV, the United States pressured Pakistan to agree to a ceasefire with India in exchange for the urgently needed cash infusion. 

There’s little doubt that the $1 billion tranche was linked to an immediate de-escalation, the sources added, noting the timing of the ceasefire just days before the IMF board’s vote.

The ceasefire followed three days of intense fighting. Though Pakistan’s military sought a bilateral truce, the deal reportedly came after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance intervened. President Donald Trump later claimed he personally brokered the agreement after "long hours of negotiation.”

India had abstained during the IMF vote, protesting what it called a bailout of bad behavior. “You can’t bomb civilians and ask for money in the same breath,” said one Indian official, calling the IMF decision a “strategic blunder.”

With over $130 billion in external debt and reserves in freefall, Pakistan had little room to maneuver.