Mounjaro, Wegovy volumes fall: Is the boom in India’s anti-obesity market slowing?

Despite rising sales driven by premium pricing, volumes of recently launched blockbuster drugs like Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (semaglutide) are falling, as India faces challenges in scaling next-generation anti-obesity therapies.

Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro has made a significant impact on India’s anti-diabetic and anti-obesity segment, posting ₹80.15 crore in sales in September 2025—a 43% jump from ₹56.01 crore in August, according to data released by market research firm Pharmarack. Since its March 2025 launch, cumulative revenue has reached ₹233.83 crore. The surge is powered by Lilly’s premium multi-dose KwikPen, which delivers more treatment cycles per unit at a higher price.

According to Pharmarack, Mounjaro has become the second-largest brand in the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) for September 2025, making it the highest-selling brand in the anti-diabetic category for the month. The drug ranked just below GSK’s Augmentin, which retained the top spot overall, and surpassed Alkem’s Pan to secure the second position. However, the success is largely in value rather than volume.

“The current number one position in value may be temporary. Once the patent expires, established brands such as USV’s Glycomet GP could regain dominance in both value and volume,” said Sheetal Sapale, Vice President – Commercial at Pharmarack.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, launched in June, appears to have plateaued early. Its September sales dipped slightly to ₹9.03 crore from ₹9.48 crore in August, while unit sales declined marginally from 6.85 thousand to 6.46 thousand, indicating early headwinds in India’s competitive anti-obesity market.

The broader anti-diabetic market in India continues to expand, reaching ₹21,404 crore in MAT September 2025, up from ₹15,964 crore four years ago. Combination therapies remain the primary growth engine, accounting for 57.3% of the market at ₹12,269 crore, while insulin and stand-alone oral anti-diabetics maintain a steady presence at ₹4,511 crore and ₹3,767 crore, respectively. USV’s Glycomet GP continues to dominate with a MAT value of ₹836.21 crore, highlighting the enduring strength of established brands.

Analysts caution that Mounjaro’s leadership may not be sustainable once generics and competitors enter the segment, and the race for patient volumes is far from over. In India, Mounjaro’s primary patent is set to expire in May 2036, delaying generic entry, but Wegovy’s key patents are due to expire sooner, allowing generic versions of semaglutide to potentially enter the market as early as 2026.

This means competitors could gain an early foothold in India’s growing anti-obesity market before Mounjaro faces generic competition. “Leadership rankings may revert to the traditional positions of Augmentin and Glycomet GP once generic competition enters the anti-obesity market and challenges the innovator brands,” said Sapale.

The anti-diabetic and obesity segment contributed around ₹21,400 crore to the IPM in September 2025, growing 7.8% year-on-year. The new GLP-1 and GIP agonists, initially approved for type-2 diabetes, are increasingly prescribed for weight management, following trends seen in the United States and Europe. India currently has about 101 million people living with diabetes and another 136 million at risk, according to the ICMR–INDIAB study, making it one of the world’s largest potential markets for next-generation drugs like Mounjaro and Wegovy.

Both Mounjaro and Wegovy are once-weekly injectable therapies. Mounjaro, introduced in March 2025, is the only therapy in India targeting both GIP and GLP-1 receptors, offering a differentiated mechanism for type-2 diabetes and obesity. Wegovy, launched a few months later, is India’s first GLP-1 analogue approved for weight loss and reduction of cardiovascular risk. Wegovy follows a gradual dose-escalation model, starting at ₹4,336.25 per weekly dose (0.25 mg to 1 mg), rising to ₹6,503.75 for the highest dose (2.4 mg). Mounjaro is priced between ₹14,000 and ₹17,500 per month.

India’s anti-obesity pharmaceutical market is valued at ₹859 crore, having recorded a fivefold increase over five years with a 46% CAGR, making it the fastest-growing therapeutic segment in the Indian pharma industry, according to Pharmarack. Market analysts believe both companies are strategically positioning themselves early to tap this expected expansion. Eli Lilly recently announced a $1 billion (₹8,300 crore) investment in contract manufacturing and a new quality hub in Hyderabad, while Novo Nordisk continues to collaborate with Indian contract manufacturers to expand production and research capabilities.