Coffee prices under pressure: Robusta and arabica coffee prices slip due to bumper crop

Global coffee prices are sliding sharply, with both benchmark Arabica and Robusta futures hitting multi-month lows as abundant supplies collide with shifting trade policies. Coffee futures fell further this week after strong harvests in Brazil and Vietnam added to global supply, while recent tariff changes reshaped buying patterns in key consuming markets, according to multiple reports.

Robusta prices slipped to a four-month low on ICE, pressured by Vietnam’s peak harvest season and rising shipments from Brazil. Brazilian exports have gained momentum after the US waived tariffs on Brazilian coffee beans, improving their competitiveness in one of the world’s largest consuming markets. Arabica prices followed a similar path, falling to their lowest levels since November as US buyers gradually returned after a phase of subdued demand.

Brazil’s sales pace has accelerated sharply. By early December, nearly 69% of the country’s upcoming coffee crop had already been sold, up seven percentage points in just one month, according to data from Safras & Mercado. Export figures underscore the shift: Brazil’s coffee shipments were down just 5.1% year-on-year in early December, a marked recovery from the more than 25% decline recorded a month earlier, before the tariff waiver took effect.

Analysts, however, remain divided on the outlook. Citi said that while heavy supplies are weighing on prices in the near term, several structural factors could provide support later. These include low global inventories, relaxed US import rules and the European Union’s decision to delay the implementation of its anti-deforestation regulations. Citi expects Robusta prices could rebound to around $3.60 per pound in the coming months.

India’s coffee exports

India’s coffee exports are on track to cross the $2 billion mark in calendar year 2025, driven largely by elevated global prices amid supply disruptions in major producing countries. Data based on permits issued by the Coffee Board show that exports up to December 16 stood at $1,968 million, marking a 21% increase over $1,630 million recorded in the same period last year.

In rupee terms, export earnings rose even faster, climbing 26% year-on-year to ₹17,106 crore from ₹13,624 crore in the corresponding period. Official sources said shipments are expected to exceed $2 billion both in the current calendar year and the ongoing financial year. Between April 1 and December 16 of the current financial year, exports were valued at $1,420 million, up from $1,223 million a year earlier.

The rise in export value has come despite a decline in volumes. Coffee shipments fell 6% to 3.66 lakh tonnes during the current calendar year, compared with 3.91 lakh tonnes last year. The drop is attributed to some European buyers shifting to lower-priced origins as Indian coffees continued to command higher premiums.

Indian robusta and arabica remain priced above international benchmarks. Robusta parchment AB currently trades at a premium of $1,000–1,100 per tonne over London prices, while arabica parchment commands a premium of 12–15 cents per pound over New York rates.

India is the world’s seventh-largest coffee producer and the fifth-largest exporter, accounting for about 5% of global coffee exports. Italy remains the top destination, followed by Germany, Belgium, Russia and the UAE.