Revised GDP series unlikely to shift growth estimates significantly, says MoSPI Secretary

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) does not expect a significant shift in India’s GDP growth estimates following the release of the revised national accounts series scheduled for February 27, 2026. MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said to a group of reporters in Delhi, that it is too early to assess the precise impact of the new data series, but broad growth expectations are unlikely to change materially.

“Too early to say on its impact on GDP numbers. In general, we don’t expect much change from our previous expectations,” Garg said. The revised GDP series will be released alongside a new inflation series and will include back-series data for 2022–23, 2023–24 and 2024–25, ensuring continuity and comparability across years.

India’s growth outlook has already strengthened after the economy recorded a higher-than-expected 8.2 percent expansion in the second quarter, prompting upward revisions to FY26 growth projections. The Reserve Bank of India currently expects GDP growth of 7.3 percent.

A key feature of the revised methodology is the expanded use of real-time data sources, particularly Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings. According to Garg, these datasets will help states estimate Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) more accurately. “We now have a lot of real-time data available with GSTN, which will allow better triangulation mechanisms,” he said. To support this transition, the ministry plans to roll out capacity-building workshops for states.

Improving the measurement of the informal economy remains a major focus. Garg said the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) will play a central role in the base-year revision by providing more granular and frequent data. However, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran cautioned that informality is inherently difficult to quantify. He noted that small businesses often blur the line between personal and business finances, leading to possible overestimation.

The ministry is also working with states to develop satellite accounts for emerging and under-measured areas such as the digital economy, tourism, and culture, in line with the upcoming System of National Accounts (SNA) 2025 revision, expected to be adopted globally from 2029. On inflation, coverage will be expanded across urban and rural markets, with the inclusion of e-commerce and other digital price data to better reflect changing consumption patterns.

Several new statistical initiatives are in the pipeline. These include the launch of the Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises, an Index of Service Production next year, and a comprehensive National Product Classification covering both goods and services.

A major methodological shift will be the adoption of double deflation across all sectors, a practice recommended by the IMF. By separately deflating output and input costs, the approach provides a more accurate measure of real value added, especially in sectors with complex supply chains.

Officials said the base-year revision is essential to reflect structural changes in the economy, incorporate new data sources, update indices such as CPI, WPI and IIP, and align India’s statistical system with evolving international standards.