Russian oil row: Brahma Chellaney on why India may not yield to US’ demands this time

Despite the US’ demands, India might be less willing to yield and curb Russian oil, said geostrategist Brahma Chellaney. India had faced similar situations in the past but had given in to the demands, as well as suffered losses for the same.

Brahma Chellaney said, “One reason Trump may feel emboldened to press New Delhi to halt Russian oil purchases is that similar pressure during his first term succeeded in driving India’s imports from neighbouring Iran to zero — despite Tehran’s long-standing discounts. India also absorbed major losses on its Venezuelan oil investments after bowing to Trump’s sanctions on that country. India’s Iran cutoff made Beijing the near-exclusive buyer of what remains the world’s cheapest crude (sold at a steep discount to the Brent benchmark), thereby strengthening China’s energy security at India’s expense.”

“Unlike Iranian and Venezuelan oil, however, Russian crude is not subject to direct U.S. sanctions — a key difference that could make New Delhi less willing to yield this time. Even so, India is seeking to placate Trump by dramatically increasing imports of higher-priced American crude,” he said.

India's ongoing purchase of Russian oil has emerged as a significant issue in its diplomatic relations with the United States. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the matter as a "point of irritation" within broader trade discussions. He highlighted that these purchases "are helping Moscow sustain its war in Ukraine."

President Donald Trump has expressed frustration over India's choice to buy oil from Russia, despite other available sources. Stephen Miller, a top aide to Trump, remarked that it is "not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing the oil from Russia."

In spite of reports suggesting that India might cease these imports, Indian officials have maintained that current supply arrangements are based on "price, grade of crude, inventories, logistics and other economic factors."

A lot of experts have, however, slammed Trump and the US administration for its hypocrisy over India’s oil purchases, while many, like Chellaney, have questioned if India is expected to change its supplier every time the West decides an oil source has fallen off its regards.

Indian government sources have also told Reuters that New Delhi is not likely to curb its oil deal with Russia due to US demands.

Trump's administration has responded with potential economic measures, including the announcement of a 25% tariff on all Indian goods. Additionally, penalties might be imposed on continued defence and energy deals with Russia.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the frustrations of the Trump administration, noting that India has "not been a great global actor" due to its significant purchases of sanctioned Russian oil. He expressed disappointment at India's slow progress in trade talks.