'Attention isn’t the real prize': Nikhil Kamath just flipped digital marketing’s biggest belief

Zerodha co-founder Nikhil Kamath is calling out a digital myth: attention isn’t the real scarcity—curiosity is.

In a recent X post, Kamath warned that creators and brands are facing what he termed a “social media recession,” driven not by vanishing eyeballs, but by a collapse in curiosity. “We talk about scarce attention,” he wrote, “but maybe the real scarcity is curiosity, and without it, attention is worthless. Agree?”

Backing his argument was research by analytics firm Oddball, which shows engagement rates plummeting in 2024: X is down 48%, Facebook 36%, TikTok 34%, and Instagram 16%. User growth has slowed since its 2021 peak, and average time spent per user has dropped by 10 minutes a day.

The drop-off isn’t just in numbers—it’s in trust. Only 11% of users say they trust social media. Most blame the rise of clickbait, repetitive brand content, and algorithm-driven misinformation.

The impact on brands is visible. Ad spend growth has decelerated sharply—from 36% between 2019 and 2021 to just 11% in the last three years. Three in four marketers report shrinking returns on campaigns.

Oddball’s findings echo journalist Cory Doctorow’s concept of “enshittification”—the slow decay of platforms into commercial noise. Over half of users now say social media feels less social and more transactional.

Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri confirms the shift: teens now prefer private DMs and Stories over public feeds. Personal sharing is moving out of sight.

Behind the scenes, creators are exhausted. Oddball’s survey found that 63% feel burnt out. Nearly half are thinking about quitting.

Kamath points to past lessons: brands that stayed active after the 2008 crash and prioritized community over clicks recovered stronger. “If curiosity dies,” his post implies, “even the best content can’t cut through the noise.”