‘India has the best fundamentals’: Why Ray Dalio is bullish on India amid global power shifts

As global power rivalries intensify and traditional alliances fray, billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes the world has entered a decisive phase where technology, self-reliance and domestic strength matter more than rules or rhetoric. In a wide-ranging conversation with entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath, the Bridgewater Associates founder argued that India, despite its challenges, is uniquely positioned to emerge as one of the fastest-growing major economies over the next decade. 

Dalio’s optimism on India comes against the backdrop of what he describes as a changing world order — one defined less by multilateral cooperation and more by power contests, especially between the United States and China. 

From multilateralism to power politics 

According to Dalio, the post-1945 global order — built around institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade Organization and World Bank — is effectively over. What has replaced it is a system where power, not rules, shapes outcomes. 

“We no longer have that kind of world order,” Dalio said, pointing to rising geopolitical fragmentation and declining trust between major powers. He argued that countries are increasingly preparing for confrontation not just on battlefields, but across trade, capital flows, technology and influence. 

“We are certainly in the classic wars that happen before a military war,” he said. “We’re in a trade war. We’re in a technology war. We’re in a geopolitical influence war.” 

While Dalio does not see an immediate, inevitable slide into large-scale military conflict, he warned that the risks are higher than in recent decades, particularly if domestic weaknesses intersect with external pressures. 

Technology as the decisive battlefield 

Dalio identified the technology war as the most critical contest shaping future global leadership. “I think the technology war is the most important war,” he said, adding that dominance in advanced technologies — from semiconductors to artificial intelligence — would determine economic strength, military capability and geopolitical influence. 

While the United States currently leads in cutting-edge chip innovation, Dalio said China has demonstrated superior ability to apply technology at scale, integrating AI and digital systems into daily life, governance and production. 

This competition, he said, is forcing countries to reassess their vulnerabilities. 

“Everybody’s now going to this independence and minimising interdependence,” Dalio noted. Nations are actively mapping dependencies — in capital, supply chains and technology — that could be weaponised by rivals, and are moving to reduce those risks. 

Why India stands out 

Against this volatile backdrop, Dalio sees India entering what he called a “wonderful arc” of development. 

Drawing on proprietary leading indicators he has developed to forecast long-term growth, Dalio said India ranks best among major economies for the coming decade. “India has the best fundamentals to have the best growth rate,” he said. 

Key to this outlook, Dalio explained, is a combination of low debt levels, large pools of talent, and accelerating infrastructure development. Unlike heavily indebted advanced economies, India still has significant room to expand credit, build physical and digital infrastructure, and formalise economic activity — all of which tend to produce steep growth curves. 

“When you’re building infrastructure, when you’re creating the ability to get credit and do transactions, that produces a growth curve,” Dalio said. 

He likened India’s current stage to where China stood roughly three decades ago — early in its transformation, but with momentum firmly in its favour. 

Strength at home matters most 

For Dalio, the defining factor in the new world order is not alliance management but domestic health. “What’s most important is how healthy the country is,” he said. “If you’re strong, you’re strong.” 

That strength, in his framework, depends on fiscal discipline, social cohesion, technological competitiveness and the ability to manage internal political cycles — challenges that every major power, including India, must navigate carefully. 

Still, Dalio’s conclusion was unequivocal: as global competition shifts from open globalisation to guarded rivalry, India’s fundamentals give it a rare opportunity to compound growth at scale. 

“For those reasons,” he said, “India, over the next 10 years, has all the ingredients to really be the strongest growth rate and improvement.”