Optimism with caveats: Bill Gates on AI, global aid and the world’s next two decades

Despite an era marked by polarization, climate risks and rapid technological disruption, Bill Gates says he remains optimistic about the world’s long-term future. Writing in a blog post on Friday, the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist argued that humanity is still on a positive trajectory—provided it addresses a few critical challenges head-on. 

“We are far better off than when I was born 70 years ago,” Gates wrote, pointing to breakthroughs in technology and global health that have dramatically improved living standards worldwide. He believes the next two decades could bring even more progress, particularly as artificial intelligence accelerates innovation. 

“I am still an optimist because I see what innovation accelerated by artificial intelligence will bring,” he wrote. But Gates also acknowledged that his optimism now “comes with footnotes.” 

A warning on generosity & global inequality 

One of Gates’ biggest concerns is whether a wealthier world will remain generous toward those most in need. He cited a troubling projection from a Gates Foundation report released in December: global deaths of children under five are expected to rise by about 200,000 in 2025 — the first increase in 25 years. 

“The projected stat is the thing I am most upset about,” Gates wrote, blaming the reversal largely on sharp cuts to global aid budgets by major governments, including the United States. 

“Over the last 25 years, those deaths went down faster than at any other point in history. But in 2025, they went up for the first time this century,” he noted, warning that the trend will continue unless aid spending is restored. 

Gates argued that continued improvements in global living standards depend on wealthy countries and individuals recommitting resources to reduce inequality. In May 2025, he announced plans to significantly step up his own philanthropy, pledging to give away “virtually all” of his estimated $118 billion fortune by 2045. 

“This idea of treating others as you wish to be treated does not just apply to rich countries giving aid,” Gates wrote, calling for increased philanthropy from billionaires and centibillionaires worldwide. 

Scaling innovation to close gaps 

Gates said his optimism is fueled by technology’s ability, especially AI’s, to expand access to health care, education and opportunity. He highlighted AI-driven progress in areas such as Alzheimer’s research, cancer treatment, malaria prevention and nutrition. 

He also reiterated his long-standing belief that AI could transform education. AI tutors, Gates has said previously, could eventually match the impact of “a great high school teacher,” offering personalized instruction across income levels and geographies. 

Environmental challenges, he added, are deeply tied to inequality. Climate change could “join poverty and infectious disease in causing enormous suffering,” particularly in poorer countries. While he once suggested redirecting some climate funding to other priorities, Gates now says he plans to invest “more than ever” in climate work. 

AI-powered agricultural tools, he argued, could help farmers in developing nations adapt to warming conditions through better advice and more resilient crops. 

Managing AI’s risks 

Even as an AI optimist, Gates acknowledged the technology’s risks—especially its potential misuse by bad actors and its impact on jobs. 

“Both are real risks that we need to do a better job managing,” he wrote, urging governments and the tech industry to be deliberate about how AI is developed, governed and deployed. 

While he did not propose specific policy solutions, Gates pushed back against fears that AI will permanently damage job prospects. Instead, he suggested that new capabilities could be allocated in ways that benefit society broadly, including shorter work weeks for some workers. 

Ultimately, Gates said his hope rests on two enduring human strengths: foresight and compassion. 

“The first is our ability to anticipate problems and prepare for them,” he wrote. “The second is our capacity to care about each other.” 

“As long as we keep exercising those abilities,” Gates concluded, “I believe the years ahead can be ones of real progress.”