Bajaj Auto Q3 results: Profit, sales may grow 30% each; all eyes on realisation, product mix

Bajaj Auto Ltd is seen clocking over 30 per cent surge in net profit on a similar growth in sales for the December quarter. Margin may contract marginally on adverse product mix due to lower exports and three-wheeler mix. Realisation may improve YoY but fall sequentially.

Phillip Capital sees profit after tax (PAT) for Bajaj Auto surging 31 per cent YoY to Rs 1,954 crore on a 29 per cent rise in sales at Rs 12,013 crore. Ebitda margin is seen falling to 19 per cent in the December quarter against 19.8 per cent in September and 19.1 per cent in the year-ago quarter.

"Revenue to grow 11 per cent QoQ led by 14 per cent increase in volumes, partially negated by decline in realisations due to adverse product mix. Ebitda margin to decline 76 bps QoQ on adverse product mix due to lower exports and 3W mix," it said.

In adjusted terms, ICICI Securities expects PAT for Bajaj Auto to come in at Rs 2,073 crore, up 29 per cent YoY. It sees revenue rising 32 per cent YoY to Rs 12,270 crore. Ebitda is seen climbing 38 per cent to Rs 2,460 crore.

YES Securities, meanwhile, sees profit rising 41 per cent YoY and sales 29.9 per cent. Overall volume for the quarter grew 22.1 per cent YoY/ 14 per cent QoQ at 1.2m units, while realisations are expected to grow 6.3 per cent YoY/down 1.5 per cent QoQ at Rs 1,00,700 per unit, it said.

"The QoQ decline in ASPs is largely led by weak product mix. This should result in revenue growth of 29.9 per cent YoY/+12.2 per cent QoQ at Rs 12,009 crore. We expect Ebitda margins to expand 140 bps YoY/70 bps QoQ at 20.5 per cent due to positive operating leverage," it said.

Sharekhan in a note said average monthly export volume run rate in Q3FY24 stood at 140,905 units compared to 133,708 units in H1FY24. The management, it said, was expecting export volume run rates in Q4FY24 to be better than Q3FY24.

"We believe the improvement in export volumes would be gradual one and would be visible in term of improvement in export volumes on quarter-on-quarter basis as headwinds persists in African markets. However, exports to LATAM are doing relatively better," it said.

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