Tata Motors is all set to report its quarterly results on Wednesday. The automaker is likely to log 15-16 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, even as analyst view differ on the bottom line, even as the performance is expected to improve on year-on-year basis. Margin is expected to fall on year-on-year basis.
HDFC Institutional Equities expects Tata Motors to report a consolidated revenue of Rs 84,202 crore, up 16.6 per cent YoY and 5.8 per cent sequentially. It sees consolidated profit for the Tata group firm at Rs 26.70 crore. Margin is seen at 12 per cent.
"For Tata Motors' domestic CVs, we expect the margin to improve by 50bps QoQ. At JLR, volumes have improved just 5.7 per cent QoQ to 79,600 units due to continued supply constraints and COVID impact in China. However, the JLR mix is favourable as sales of higher end RR-RR Sport have doubled QoQ. Overall, we expect JLR’s margin to improve 130 bps QoQ to 11.6 oer cent, led by an improved mix," it said.
Emkay Global said Tata Motors is likely to register a 15 per cent growth in consolidated revenues, driven by growth across divisions. Consolidated Ebitda margin should contract 50 bps YoY, owing to lower margin in JLR, it said. Sequentially, Ebitda margin is expected to expand 113 basis points, it said.
"JLR’s revenue is expected to grow 19 oer cent YoY to 5.6 billion British pound, owing to higher volumes (up 14 per cent) and realizations (up 5 per cent). Ebitda margin to contract 120 bps to 10.8 per cent due to adverse model mix. India CV revenue may grow 20 per cent to Rs 14,900 crore, driven by higher realisation (up 26 per cent). Realisation may improve due to higher MHCV share– 42 per cent vs 34 per cent YoY and price hikes. Ebitda margin may expand 340 bps to 5.8 per cent due to better net pricing and scale," Emkay Global said.
This brokerage sees consolidated loss at Rs 171.90 crore.
Prabhudas Lilladher sees consolidated sales for Tata Motors at Rs 82,795.80 crore, up 14.6 per cent YoY over Rs 72,229.30 crore in the year-ago quarter. It sees Q3 losses at Rs 54.90 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 8.8 per cent to Rs 9,852.70 crore from Rs 9,056.80 crore YoY, but margin is seen falling to 11.9 per cent from 12.5 per cent YoY.
"Tata Motors' standalone revenue may decline 2.5 per cent QoQ, owing to 4.5 per cent drop in volumes. Ebitda margin to expand 60 bps as raw material cost easing out. We expect JLR volumes to grow in mid-single digit led by servicing of order book and semiconductor supply improving," Prabhudas Lilladher said.
Motilal Oswal sees consolidated profit at Rs 160 crore. India business outlook remains healthy led by strong growth in PVs and CVs, it said. JLR volumes may grow YoY due to easing chip shortage issue, it said. The brokerage estimated Ebit margin of 3.7 per cent for JLR, supported by mix, softening RM and cost control. India Ebitda margin is estimated to expand 50 bps YoY due to easing RM cost inflation.
On a standalone basis, Kotak Institutional Equities sees Tata Motors' losses narrowing to Rs 26.50 crore in the December quarter from Rs 215.70 crore loss in September and Rs 610 crore loss in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen rising 17.7 per cent YoY to Rs 14,544 crore compared with Rs 12,352.80 crore in the same quarter last year. Margin is seen expanding to 5.2 per cent from 4.4 per cent in September and 2.4 per cent in the corresponding quarter last year.
"We estimate standalone business revenues to decline by 3 per cent QoQ in Q3FY23 led by 5 per cent QoQ decline in volumes and 2 per cent QoQ increases in ASPs due to richer product mix mix. Overall, we expect Ebitda margin to improve to 5.2 per cent in Q3FY23 from 4.4 per cent in Q2FY23 led by RM tailwinds," it said.
On a consolidated basis, Kotak sees profit at Rs 800 crore against a loss of Rs 1,796 crore in the year-ago quarter. Sales are seen rising 14.50 per cent YoY to Rs 82,718 crore, Kotak said.
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