Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 190 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian shares are set for a gap-down start on Thursday after US President Donald Trump threatened a 25 per cent tariff on goods imported from the country starting August 1 and an unspecified penalty. Besides that monthly expiry of July contract series, weak Q1 earnings and relentless FIIs selling shall weigh on the sentiment of Dalal Street.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 190.30 points, or 0.76 per cent, down at 24,680, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian equities slipped on Thursday after weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data. Nikkei surged nearly a per cent, while Hang Seng was up in similar fashion. KOSPI was also seen slightly lower.

Sentiment sours on the back of Trump’s 25 per cent tariff imposition on Indian goods, the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady despite pressure, and relentless FII selling, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities. Q1 earnings today from heavyweights will guide sentiment, he said.

US stocks closed well off earlier highs after a choppy session on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.71 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 44,461.28, the S&P 500 lost 7.96 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 6,362.90 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 31.38 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 21,129.67.

The dollar flirted with a two-month peak on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his patient approach on rates. The dollar index was at 98.812, just shy of the two month high of 99.987 it touched on Wednesday. The index is set to clock a 3.1 per cent gain for the month, its first in 2025.

In commodities, gold prices dropped more than a per cent to $3,291.93 an ounce. Brent crude futures for September delivery , which are set to expire on Thursday, rose 0.33 per cent, to $73.48 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September gained 0.21 per cent to $70.15 a barrel.

Gold dipped slightly on the back of the statement, as USD strengthened and US yields rose. Powell's comments, whilst neutral, reduced expectations for near term rate cuts, said Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets. "Traders need to keep a clear eye on CPI, NFP and PCE data for clues as to if we are likely to see the expected cuts by the end of the year," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 850.04 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,805.10 crore on a net-net basis.

Participants will react to the US Fed Chair’s commentary in early Thursday trades, after which the focus will shift to the monthly expiry of July derivatives contracts and ongoing earnings season, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend maintaining a cautious stance and prefer a hedged approach," he said.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

The 50-day EMA zone of 24930-24960 will act as an immediate hurdle for Nifty50. Any sustainable move above the level of 24,960 will lead to extension of pullback rally upto the 25100 level, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. "While on the downside, the zone of 24,730-24,700 will act as crucial support for the index," he said.

As long as the market trades above 24,750/81,200, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, the market could move up to 25,000/82,000, with further upside potentially pushing the indices to 25,075/82,200, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "On the downside, if the market falls below 24,750/81,200, we could see a fresh round of selling."
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank retested its breakdown level and is hovering around a key zone. A sustained move above 56,275 may lead to a rise till 57,000 and 57,630, while support lies at 55,500–55,150, said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "The broader price structure still reflects a bullish bias, and dips may offer entry opportunities for positional traders."

The 55,500–55,000 region emerges as a critical support cluster for Nifty Bank, coinciding with the 100-day EMA and key Fibonacci retracement levels of the prior up move—underscoring it as a high-probability demand zone where buyers may look to re-enter, potentially arresting the ongoing decline, said Bajaj Broking.