Aegis, Concor, Delhivery, TCI Express: JPMorgan sets targets on 4 logistics stocks

JPMorgan has initiated coverage on India’s logistics sector, spanning B2C, B2B express and oil & gas transport, with target prices for Aegis Logistics, Container Corporation of India Ltd (Concor), Delhivery and TCI Express. It named Delhivery and Aegis as top picks with 'Overweight' ratings, while Concor and TCI Express were assigned 'Neutral'. The call comes amid rapid growth in e-commerce and oil & gas logistics.

The sector is transforming as new-age players leverage technology and automation for operational efficiencies and to address labour shortages. According to JPMorgan, new age logistics players like Delhivery are displaying this awareness, cracking this code to better execution while raising the barriers to entry.

Delhivery received an Overweight rating and a target price of Rs 575. JPMorgan forecasts an FY25-28E Ebitda CAGR of 58 per cent for Delhivery, driven by increased economies of scale and easing competitive headwinds. Consensus earnings revisions have turned positive, supported by industry tailwinds such as GST rate reductions and improved pricing discipline.

Delhivery’s recent volume hit following a major e-commerce client’s shift to captive sourcing is now factored into projections. The company’s tech investments have created a strong moat, and it is transitioning from a capex-heavy phase to generating strong free cash flow. Its robust net cash position provides room for future M&A.

Aegis Logistics also has an 'Overweight' rating and a target price of Rs 895. JPMorgan sees oil and gas logistics as a multi-year growth story, noting that rapidly growing LPG imports and ongoing port capacity creation are key opportunities. India’s LPG imports are projected to rise by about 10 million tonnes by FY30 (8 per cent CAGR), as domestic production remains flat while demand grows for household and industrial uses.

Aegis’ capacity expansion, tie-ups with marquee customers, strong ROCE, and high entry barriers are seen as the right ingredients for continued outperformance, with JPMorgan estimating a 16% EPS growth for FY25-28E.

TCI Express is rated Neutral, with a target price of Rs 750. While the company delivered a strong EPS CAGR of 24 per cent between FY17 and FY23, it now faces headwinds from slowing volume growth due to SME stress and increased competition from players like Delhivery. JPMorgan forecasts about 14 per cent EPS growth for FY25-28E, but remains cautious as FY28E EPS is likely to remain below the FY23 peak.

Concor received a Neutral rating and a target price of Rs 590. JPMorgan notes that while Concor has been re-rated on growth expectations, it has struggled with earnings misses and market share loss. The stock is down 28 per cent in the past year, but risk-reward is seen as balanced at current valuations, with a 10 per cent FY25-28E sales CAGR expected.