Asian Paints shares in an uptrend since Q4 earnings, can the stock erase investors' losses ?

Shares of Asian Paints are in an uptrend since the paint major announced its Q4 earnings. Asian Paints stock, which closed at Rs 2,302 on May 8, the day when earnings were announced, is trading at Rs 2,376 in the current session. However, it has risen 12% from its 52-week low of Rs 2,125 reached on March 4, 2025. Will Q4 earnings of the firm lead to a strong recovery and help regain investors' confidence in the stock, which has not delivered in both short and long term? Here's what brokerages have to say on the outlook the paint major.

Systematix Institutional Equities has a price target of Rs 2,645 on the stock. Assigning a buy call, the brokerage said it believes the company is well-placed to benefit from a gradual industry demand recovery, benign raw material costs and operating efficiencies, supported by product differentiation. 

"We lower our FY26E-FY27E revenue/EPS estimates by 6-7%/10% to account for a near-term reset of growth/margins at lower levels; we build in FY25-FY27E revenue/EPS CAGR of 7%/11% respectively. We maintain BUY rating on Asian Paints; we roll forward valuation to March-2027 (from December-2026), valuing the stock at a P/E of 51x (in-line with its current one-year forward multiple), resulting in a TP of Rs 2,645 (vs Rs 2,870 earlier)," said the brokerage. 

Centrum Broking has an 'ADD' call on the paint stock with a price target of Rs 2,450. 

"We lower our FY26E-FY27E revenue/EPS estimates by 6-7%/10% to account for a near-term reset of growth/margins at lower levels; we build in FY25-FY27E revenue/EPS CAGR of 7%/11% respectively. We maintain BUY rating on APNT; we roll forward valuation to March-2027 (from December-2026), valuing the stock at a P/E of 51x (in-line with its current one-year forward multiple), resulting in a price target of Rs 2,645 (vs Rs 2,870 earlier)," said Centrum. 

The stock has lost 15% in a year and fallen 24% in two years. The paints stock is up just 2.5% this year and lost 3% in the last two weeks. 

Kotak Equities has a reduce call on the stock with a price target of Rs 2250. It finds the outlook of the stock weak and valuation of the stock too high to take a positive stance. 

"We cut FY2026-27E EPS by 3-6%, roll over and maintain FV at Rs 2,250, valuing Asian Paints at 43 times June 2027E PE (unchanged). While the earnings downgrade cycle may be nearing its end, the outlook remains markedly weak, and valuations are still too rich to justify a constructive stance," said Kotak Equities. 

In the current session, Asian Paints shares rose 2.28% to Rs 2353 against the previous close of Rs 2300 on BSE. Total 0.71 lakh shares of Asian Paints changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 16.74 crore. Market cap of Asian Paints stood at Rs 2.25 lakh crore. Asian Paints shares have a one-year beta of 0.5, indicating very low volatility during the period.

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of Asian Paints stands at 37.2, signaling it's trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold zone. Asian Paints stock stands lower than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 150 day, 200 day but higher than the 50 day and 100 day moving averages. 

The firm reported a 45 percent year-on-year fall in net profit to Rs 692 crore.

The paint maker said it reported an exceptional item of Rs 182.96 crore in its consolidated financials for Q4 FY25, which includes a Rs 83.7 crore loss on the divestment of its Indonesian subsidiaries, and impairment losses of Rs 77.8 crore and Rs 21.5 crore on goodwill and intangibles related to the acquisitions of Obgenix Software (White Teak) and Causeway Paints (Sri Lanka), respectively.

Consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter also slipped 4.3 percent to Rs 8,359 crore. 

The board of the firm recommended a final dividend of Rs 20.55 per equity share of Re 1 each, taking the total dividend for the fiscal year 2024-25 to Rs 24.8 per share. The record date for the final dividend was fixed at June 10, 2025, whereas the payout, if approved by shareholders, will be made on 30 June 2025.