Bajaj Auto, NDMC, Granules, Shyam Metalics: 2 technical, 2 fundamental picks by SMC Global

Brokerage firm SMC Global has identified four stocks—two based on fundamental analysis and two on technical setups—that it believes could offer potential upside for investors. The fundamental picks, Bajaj Auto and NMDC, are recommended with an 8 to 10-month horizon, while the technical calls on Granules India and Shyam Metalics are for a shorter term of one to two months.

Fundamental Picks
Bajaj Auto Ltd: Target price Rs 9,794

SMC Global has a positive outlook on Bajaj Auto, citing its increasingly export-led growth and strategic focus on the premium segment. The brokerage notes that while domestic sales saw a decline in Q1 FY26, exports surged by 16 per cent YoY, outperforming the industry. The company's growth is being driven by strong momentum in Latin America and Asia.

Bajaj Auto, which is involved in developing, manufacturing, and distributing automobiles like motorcycles and commercial vehicles, has reinforced its premium strategy with the launch of new Pulsar variants. The company also maintains a leadership position in commercial vehicles, holding a 75 per cent share in ICE 3-wheelers, while its Chetak electric two-wheeler sales more than doubled year-on-year, capturing a 21 per cent market share.

Based on these factors, SMC has set a target price of Rs 9794 over an 8 to 10-month period, implying a potential upside of 13 per cent from the current market price of Rs 8685. The brokerage identifies currency fluctuations and competitive pressure in the 100cc motorcycle segment as key risks.

NMDC Ltd: Target price Rs 89

State-run miner NMDC is SMC's second fundamental pick, with the brokerage highlighting its strong performance and ambitious diversification and expansion plans. The company, which is engaged in the exploration and production of iron ore and diamonds, reported its best-ever Q1 FY26 performance, with iron ore production rising 31 per cent YoY to 119.94 LT and sales growing 14 per cent YoY to 115.17 LT.

NMDC is pursuing an aggressive diversification strategy, setting up a Dubai office to explore opportunities in Africa and evaluating acquisitions in ten critical minerals, with a focus on coking coal assets to reduce India's import dependency. Domestically, its pellet business is scaling up, with exports projected to rise from 0.5 MT in FY25 to 2.5-3 MT in FY26. The company is also executing its "most ambitious capex and expansion roadmap to date," with a capex guidance of Rs 4,000-4,200 crore for FY26.

SMC Global has a target price of Rs 89 for NMDC, seeing a 16 per cent upside from the CMP of Rs 77.15, with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months. Potential risks include the sizeable capex and volatility in raw material prices.

Technical Picks
Granules India Ltd: Upside potential of up to Rs 600

On the technical front, Granules India has formed what SMC's analysts call "a classic Double Bottom pattern" on weekly charts, with a strong support base established around the Rs 440-450 zone. The stock, which closed at Rs 557.30 on October 3rd, 2025, recently broke past its neckline resistance near the Rs 550-555 levels, confirming a bullish breakout.

The brokerage notes that this breakout is supported by steady volumes, suggesting sustained buying interest. Based on this setup, SMC recommends that "one can accumulate a stock on dips in range of 540-545 levels with the expected upside of 595-600 levels with S/L below 510 levels". The time horizon for this technical call is one to two months.

Shyam Metalics and Energy Ltd: Upside potential of up to Rs 1040

Shyam Metalics has delivered a decisive bullish signal on the daily charts by breaking out of a "falling channel pattern," which ended weeks of a sideways-to-negative trend. The stock closed at Rs 970.80 on October 3rd, 2025, after surging past the channel's upper band with strong momentum.

According to SMC, the breakout was accompanied by a "noticeable rise in volumes and positive divergences on secondary oscillators". The brokerage suggests that "one can accumulate the stock on dips in range of 950-960 for the expected upside of 1030-1040 levels with S/L below 900 levels". This recommendation is for a one to two-month period