FII holding at 11-quarter high! NBFC stock hits record high, overbought on charts; what's next?

Shares of Bajaj Finance hit their record high amid correction in the broader market today. The NBFC stock, in which FII stake stands at a 11-quarter high of 19.3, rose to a peak of Rs 1035.95 against the previous close of Rs 1025.65 on BSE. Market cap of Bajaj Finance slipped to Rs 6.40 lakh crore. Total 3.52 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 36.26 crore on Wednesday. 

The stock has gained 48.35% this year. On the other hand, its parent index Sensex has risen 4% in 2025. 

The stock is overbought on charts with a RSI of 74.8. A level below 30 is defined as oversold while a value above 70 is considered overbought. 

The stock is trading higher than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages.

Bajaj Finance stock has a one-year beta of 1.1, indicating high volatility during the period.

Jigar S Patel from Anand Rathi said, "Support will be Rs 1, 000 and resistance at Rs 1036 . A decisive move above the Rs 1,036 level may trigger a further upside of Rs 1060 . The expected trading range will be between Rs 990 and Rs 1060 for the short-term."

Kunal Kamble, Sr. Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza said, "Bajaj Finance is forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong uptrend. On the daily timeframe, the stock has given a breakout above its resistance at Rs 977.65, which will now act as a key support level. The price is trading above its major EMAs, aligning with the positive price action, while indicators are also trending positively. Any dip towards the support should be seen as a buying opportunity, as long as the stock sustains above Rs 977.65. The overall setup suggests that the stock has opened the path for an upward move towards Rs 1080– Rs 1160 levels."

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said, "Bajaj Finance has delivered a strong breakout above the consolidation band, extending its momentum with a sustained move beyond Rs 1,000. The stock has reclaimed its position above the previous resistance zone after forming a steady base, supported by price compression before the breakout.

On the daily chart, the stock is well-positioned above the Supertrend level of Rs 970, reflecting a clear bullish outlook. The daily RSI has surged to 75, indicating strong momentum but also highlighting that the stock is entering overbought territory. The MACD remains in a bullish crossover, with the histogram expanding positively, validating the strength of the up move. The stock also holds above all key moving averages, with positive crossovers adding further confirmation.

The breakout aligns with the Fibonacci extension, where the 1.618 level at Rs 1,035 now acts as the first hurdle, followed by the 2.0 extension at Rs 1,080 and the 2.618 projection near Rs 1,150. These zones represent clear upside markers if the momentum continues.

As long as the stock sustains above Rs 970, the outlook remains positive. Upside potential extends first to Rs 1,080, followed by Rs 1,150, while a close below Rs 970 would warrant a cautious approach."

Meanwhile, Axis Securities has a buy call on the large cap stock with a price target of Rs 1,043- Rs 1,085. Stop Loss can be fixed at Rs 935. 

"Bajaj Finance has staged a decisive breakout above its consolidation range of Rs 970–856 on the weekly chart, supported by a strong bullish candle, signalling the end of consolidation and a continuation of the medium-term uptrend. The stock maintains a higher high–higher low structure and trades comfortably above its rising trendline, underscoring sustained buying interest. A close above the weekly upper Bollinger Band has further generated a fresh buy signal. Momentum indicators reinforce the bullish setup, with the weekly RSI firmly above 50 and delivering a crossover above its reference line, adding strength to the positive outlook," said the brokerage. 

LKP Securities' Senior Technical Analyst Rupak De has a buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs 1050. Stop loss can be fixed at Rs 944. 

"The stock has staged a strong recovery from August lows near Rs 850, comfortably trading above the 21-EMA, highlighting a firm bullish trend. However, RSI above 80 indicates overbought conditions, raising the risk of a near-term pause or profit booking. Volumes have picked up, confirming strong participation in the upmove. While the trend remains positive, the overextended momentum suggests chances of consolidation before the next leg higher. Fresh longs should be taken on corrections for better risk management," said De.