BHEL shares: This multibagger PSU headed for 40% rally or 63% crash? Check price targets

BHEL shares target price: Brokerage firms, both domestic and global, continue to remain divided on Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) following its quarterly results for the three months ended on June 30, 2026. The company announced its Q1 results a week ago on July 16, 2026.

BHEL retuned to black in the June 2026 quarter as it reported a net profit at Rs 376.71 crore, from a net loss of Rs 455.50 crore in the year ago quarter. Its revenue from operations rose 40.29 per cent YoY to Rs 7,697.72 crore, while it also turned Ebitda positive to Rs 503.86 crore, even as the margins contracted.

Shares of BHEL plunged nearly 2 per cent to Rs 409.15 on Thursday, commanding a market capitalization of Rs 1.4 lakh crore. The stock has down nearly 9 per cent form its 52-week high hit earlier this month, when the company announce its quarterly earnings. Despite this correction, the stock is up more than 100 per cent from its 52-week lows hit nearly 11 months ago.

Brokerages believe that BHEL's is supported by its record Rs 2.6 lakh crore order book, which provides strong revenue visibility across thermal power, nuclear, defence, transmission and other infrastructure segments. Improving execution has translated into robust earnings, with better margins and profitability, while analysts expect operating leverage and a richer business mix to drive sustained growth.

BHEL's investment case is supported by its record order book, providing strong revenue visibility over the medium term across thermal power, nuclear, transmission, defence, railways and other high-growth segments. Its improving execution has begun translating into better financial performance, with Q1FY27 revenue rising 40 per cent YoY and a return to profitability at the EBITDA and PAT levels, said ICICIDirect.

It expects operating leverage, a richer mix of higher-margin businesses, improved project execution and stronger cash generation to drive further margin expansion. With robust order inflows expected in FY27, BHEL appears well placed for sustained growth and profitability improvement, added the brokerage firms a target price of Rs 575.

BHEL delivered robust Q1FY27 and its order book stood at a record Rs 2,60,300 crore as of Q1FY27, up 27 per cent YoY, 81 per cent from power, 17 per cent from industry and 2 per cent exports, non-thermal contribution Rs 65,500 crore, underpinning long-term earnings visibility Ratin well beyond the core thermal cycle, said Dolat Capital.

"We raise FY27E/FY28E PAT by 11 per cent/8.3 per cent and introduce FY29E EPS of Rs 17, and upgrade the stock to BUY (from Accumulate) with a revised target price of Rs 525 (from Rs421) valuing the stock at 35 times September 2028E EPS, rolled forward from 35 times FY28E earlier," it added.

Business outlook remains positive as ~ 8 to 10 GW of annual ordering is possible in the medium-term (BHEL has already secured one large order worth Rs 21,000 crore from MUNPL for setting up 3x800 MW TPP on an EPC basis), said Antique Stock Broking. "We maintain our estimates and reiterate our 'buy' rating with an unchanged target price of Rs 527, based on 32 times H1FY29 earnings."

Phillip Capital, JM Financial and 360 One Capital has a 'buy' rating on BHEL with a target price of Rs500, Rs 481 and Rs 537 respectively. IIFL has an 'add' tag for the with a target price of Rs 502. BHEL's highest price target suggest a 40 per cent rally in the capital good major.

However, some brokerages remain cautious, citing moderating thermal power orders, the cyclical nature of the business and rising competition from renewable energy and battery storage. They also believe much of the near-term optimism is already reflected in the stock's current valuation

Strong Q1 results reflect execution-led earnings and front-loaded thermal ordering, with strong revenue growth and margin delivery, said UBS. It remains constructive on BHEL's earnings over the next 12-24 months as significant portion of the order book moves into execution. 

"In our view, best of ordering upside is captured and bulk of value creation is likely to be earnings-led, where we remain ahead of consensus. Key upside risk to our thesis would be near-term large orders in coal gasification/nuclear segments, which we continue to monitor closely," it UBS added and maintained a 'neutral' rating with a target price of Rs 460.

In 1FY27 BHEL's revenue growth was strong, led by the power segment but its recent sharp outperformance provides a good exit opportunity in a deeply cyclical name, especially given that the best of the thermal power plant ordering cycle is already behind us. This is evident from the fact that BHEL's FY26 order inflows fell 19 per cent YoY and power segment orders fell 27 per cent YoY in FY26, said JP Morgan.

"We believe the pace of order inflows will reduce sharply from hereon, as the initial scramble to order out and start construction of coal-based capacity normalizes. The rise of energy storage systems along with cheap solar poses a long-term existential threat to the quantum of coal-based power generation plants that India will need. As a result, the current stock price more than adequately factors in the long-term profit potential," it added with an 'underweight' rating and a target price of Rs 220.

Macquarie also has an 'underperform' rating on BHEL with a target price of Rs 315, while PL Capital and CLSA have given it a 'reduce' call with target price of Rs 368 and Rs 306 respectively. Axis Capital and Kotak Institutional Equities have 'sell' call for BHEL with target price of Rs 255 and Rs 150, respectively. Kotak's Rs 150 target price suggest a 63 per cent crash in the counter.