BPCL, HPCL and IOC: OMCs still not out of the woods? Share price targets

Oil marketing company (OMC) stocks are not out of the woods yet despite recent optimism over the US-Iran peace deal. Analysts said uncertainty persisted, particularly around the nuclear deal. There were media reports suggesting Tehran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard ​Corps has declared the Strait of Hormuz shut following the alleged ceasefire violation in Lebanon. A Reuters report later suggested that a high-level Iranian team departed for Switzerland on Saturday for talks ‌with the United States. Earlier US talks with Iranian negotiators on a pact to end the Iran war was postponed on Friday after the US Vice President JD Vance dropped plans to travel to Switzerland, raising doubts over the truce.

While Brent crude prices recently fell to $80 a barrel, their lowest level since March 2026, PL Capital cautioned that the trend could reverse. InCred Equities said the Iran war may have strengthened Iran’s leverage. It said Israel faces higher missile risk, while Iran can still use Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi militias for indirect pressure.

"US bases look vulnerable, and the Strait of Hormuz has become a proven blackmail tool. Crude oil may now carry a permanent risk premium, benefiting Russia and the US as buyers diversify away from Gulf supply," it said.

PL Capital said June quarter results are expected to see a sharp fall in profitability, impacting earnings for the full year. It expects an under-recovery of Rs 7 per litre in petrol and Rs 10 per litre in diesel in Q1, after considering a Rs 10 per litre  excise cut and capping of cracks at $10 per barrel and $15 per barrel for MS and HSD respectively. Additionally, LPG continued to remain a key pain point, with losses estimated at around Rs 500 per cylinder for Q1FY27, PL Capital said.

As per Q4FY26 concall, OMCs reported LPG under-recoveries in the range of Rs 610-670 per cylinder in May against Rs 170 per cylinder in April. Saudi CP prices for Q1FY27 are expected to increase 47 per cent QoQ, driven by supply constraints due to the West Asia disruption," PL Capital said. 

It downgraded IOC and BPCL to 'Reduce' and HPCL to 'Hold' from 'Accumulate' as near-term earnings visibility remains weak. It suggested a target of Rs 126 for IOC, Rs 384 for HPCL and Rs 291 for BPCL.

Also, PL Capital noted that countries that drew down their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) and inventories during the conflict are likely to start rebuilding stocks, which could lend support to crude prices. The brokerage said inventory replenishment would create additional demand in the market, potentially offsetting some of the near-term supply-driven pressure and supporting oil price.

"The overhang of a rollback in excise duty cuts of Rs 10 per litre remains a key pressure point for OMCs, although the rollback is expected to happen in a phased manner. If the US-Iran situation progresses positively and full normalcy is restored at the Strait of Hormuz, crude prices may soften further. However, we expect crude oil prices to rise again as countries are expected to replenish inventories and SPRs to maintain optimum resource levels, creating incremental demand in the market," PL Capital said.