HDFC AMC share price target post bonus issue: Why Antique is bullish on stock

HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC), whose shares turned ex-date for bonus issue in the previous sesssion, received a 'Buy' rating from Antique Stock Broking. The brokerage suggested a target price of Rs 3,350 on HDFC AMC, citing strong market share gains and sustained improvement in fund performance. Antique highlighted that over 80 per cent of HDFC AMC’s equity assets consistently ranked in the top two quartiles across one-, three-, five- and 10-year return metrics, driving market-leading equity net flows even amid a modest slowdown in industry-level inflows. This has lifted the company’s flow market share to an estimated 15 per cent over the past 2–3 months, well above its book market share, the brokerage said.

Antique noted that disciplined cost management, including rationalisation of distributor commissions, has helped HDFC AMC maintain a stable equity yield of around 59 bps, despite a 57 per cent expansion in equity AUM over the past six quarters. The brokerage viewed the recent 10 per cent correction in HDFCAMC’s stock following SEBI’s consultation paper on expense ratios as an attractive opportunity, citing experience from the 2019 TER revision, which showed AMCs largely passed through the impact without significant earnings disruption.

The brokerage expects HDFC AMC to deliver earnings ahead of consensus for FY25–28, driven by strong fund performance, flow market share gains, and operating leverage. Key performance highlights include a sharp turnaround in one-year equity fund performance, with AUM in the first quartile rising from 8 per cent in 2QFY25 to ~70 per cent in 2QFY26, broad-based improvements across large-cap, mid-cap, flexi-cap and focused fund categories, and stable yields despite strong AUM growth.

Net equity inflows continued to outperform, with incremental flows coming primarily from flexi-cap, large- and mid-cap, and focused fund segments. Regulatory concerns from the recent SEBI paper are expected to have limited earnings impact given HDFCAMC’s scale and strong bargaining position with distributors.

Antique projected HDFC AMC to achieve around 21 per cent QAAUM growth and 17–18 per cent revenue and PAT CAGR through FY25–28. The stock traded at 33 times FY27 P/E and 28.5 times FY28 P/E, offering an attractive entry point, it said. Key risks include sharp equity market corrections, TER regulation changes, continued shift to passive funds, or slower-than-expected inflows.