ICICI Bank share price target: Two near-term triggers that can drive earnings rerating

Antique Stock Broking on Thursday said ICICI Bank Ltd is positioned for a stronger growth with stable profitability ahead. The domestic brokerage said commentary around FCNR(B) inflows and higher balance sheet growth from the September quarter are two key positive catalysts for ICICI Bank's earnings revision in the near term.

Antique suggested 'Buy' and an unchanged target price of Rs 1,622 on the stock so far. The target suggests 17 per cent potential upside over the prevailing price of Rs 1,387.70.

Antique re-iterated its positive stance on ICICI bank on the back of improvement in loan growth, stable margins supported by a superior liability franchise, higher fees and lower opex. 

It expects ICICI Bank's loan growth for the bank to remain strong led by corporate, business banking, housing and gold loans. 

"Based on sectoral trends, recent macro policy measures and management interactions, we see upside risk to our FY26-28 loan CAGR estimate of 14.5 per cent," Antique said. 

The domestic brokerage said the March quarter net interest margin (NIM), ex of IT refunds, should reflect benefit of residual term deposit (TD) repricing offset by higher wholesale rates and Kisan Credit Card (KCC) reversals. 

"Over the year, margins are expected to remain range bound considering the interplay of higher FNCR flows along with expectation of increase in overseas loan book," it said.

Antique said a pickup in payments and card related fees, higher fee income and higher transaction banking fees should result in double digit fee income growth against an 8 per cent YoY growth in FY26.

ICICI Bank's opex growth, in FY27, is expected to be controlled due to lower DICGC premium on the back of risk based pricing, from April 1, and moderation in Priority Sector Lending Certificate (PSLC) costs against those prevalent in FY26. Lastly, Antique Stock Broking sees credit costs in the range of 40-50 bps against 38 bps in FY26, which benefitted from higher corporate recoveries.