ICICI Bank share price targets: Lower provisions lift Q4 profit; what's next?

ICICI Bank reported inline net interest income (NII) and pre-provision operating profit in the March quarter, while profit after tax (PAT) beat analyst expectations, mainly due to lower provisions driven by higher recoveries and write-backs in the corporate book, along with lower provisioning requirements in retail unsecured credit.

Post the improvement in growth trends over the last two quarters, Antique Stock Broking remained sanguine about the bank's earnings outlook and expects a healthy earnings growth 14 per cent over the next two years. "We retain our target price of Rs 1,622, valuing the standalone bank at FY28 P/B of 2.23 times with Rs 312 per share as subsidiary value . Maintain Buy," Antique said.

Equirus Securities said ICICI Bank continued to deliver strong return on asset (RoA) in the near term. An uptick in systemic credit demand positions the bank for growth acceleration, it said.

"The stock has corrected to 1.9 times March 2028 ABV, offering an attractive entry. The key monitorable for FY27 is sustaining above-system loan growth while preserving superior RoA, especially with potential upside risk to credit costs – a demanding but achievable outcome given the bank’s franchise strength across retail, business banking and corporate segments," it said while raising its target to Rs 1,675 from Rs 1,590 earlier.

MOFSL said ICICI Bank reported a strong quarter with negligible provisions and resilient NIMs, while other income missed the estimate owing to a minor treasury loss. NIM for the improved 2 basis points QoQ, with 5 basis points positive impact from interest on IT refund. The bank expects NIMs to remain broadly stable over FY27E, with cost of funding repricing yet to play out. 

"The bank has seen some provision release, mainly on the corporate exposure, while it maintains its conservative credit cost guidance of 50bp, which we expect to be in the range of 0.4-0.5 per cent. We believe that the bank is well poised to deliver avg. RoA of 2.25% over FY27-28E. Asset quality is among the best in the industry, with a stable contingency buffer," MOFSL said while suggesting a target of Rs 1,750 on the stock. 

Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities set a fresh target price of Rs 1,570 for ICICI Bank against Rs 1,521 earlier. Its target multiple is at a 14 per cent discount to past 5-year average book value multiple of 2.8 times. 

"With the listing of ICICI Prudential AMC, we have changed its valuation methodology to current market capitalization (as against a valuation of 25x TTM P/E earlier). This, coupled with some increase in market capitalization of other listed subsidiaries, has resulted in the improvement of subsidiary value per share from Rs 205 earlier to Rs 245. We maintain BUY on ICICI Bank," Nirmal Bang said.