IDFC Bank shares: Mild recovery today post brutal crash; what lies ahead?

IDFC Bank shares ended higher on Tuesday a day after the banking stock hit its lower circuit of 20%. The banking stock closed 1.33% higher at Rs 70.97 today. Market cap of the lender stood at Rs 61,028 crore. The minor recovery in the stock came after brokerages said the Rs 590 crore fraud case was confined to a single branch (Chandigarh) only. There were no systemic risks  arising from the this money siphoning incident. 

Losses were also capped after Haryana CM Nayab Singh Saini promised on Monday that “every paisa will be returned” and warned that no one involved will be spared. 

Brokerage Motilal Oswal said the fraud was not a systemic failure and was confined to a single Chandigarh branch. It does not extend to other customers or branches, with prima facie evidence pointing to employee collusion with external parties.

The brokerage maintained a neutral call on the stock with a price target of Rs 80, an upside of 14% to the previous close. 

Another brokerage Investec continues to view the bank’s growth prospects positively, with earlier projections of 29% core Pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) growth (FI25-FI28.  

However, the brokerage has pared its price target to Rs 92 against the earlier target of Rs 105 post disclosure of teh Rs 590-crore fraud. 

Another brokerage ICICI Securities pared its target price on IDFC First Bank by 18 per cent to Rs 80 from Rs 97 earlier while downgrading the stock to 'Add'. The brokerage believes the suspected deposits fraud hit appears manageable but is likely to weigh on investor sentiment.