Kaynes Tech shares: What analysts say as stock loses half its market value in 2025

Shares of Kaynes Technologies Ltd resumed downward trend, falling over 10 per cent in Wednesday's trade, to take its year-to-date fall to about 50 per cent. The fresh fall came as Kotak cut its target price by 33 per cent. Even as the brokerage acknowledged the management responses to its earlier report, it felt certain aspects with respect to intangible accounting and elevated working capital still remain unclear. 

Kaynes Tech hosted a conference call to address key business-related concerns, during which management provided detailed clarifications on the accounting treatment of goodwill and intangible assets on account of  Iskraemeco and sensonic acquisitions. It also talked about the  progress on receivable management, and the steps taken to improve accuracy in related-party transactions, margin reporting, purchase price allocation, and related-party disclosures. 

In addition, Kaynes Tech provided clarity on cash flow reconciliation and broader working capital metrics. 

"Management indicated that financing arrangements such as bill discounting and factoring are not expected to materially impact on overall profitability. Smart metering will constitute a declining portion of the portfolio as other verticals—including automotive, industrial, EV, railways, aerospace, and defense—continue to scale. The company reiterated its ongoing efforts to strengthen internal controls, enhance disclosure quality, and improve receivable management," PL Capital said

This brokerage downward its FY26-FY28E earnings estimate by 1.8-7.8 per cent and maintained our ‘Buy’ rating with our DCF-based target is Rs 5,624 against Rs 7,565 earlier, implying PE of 45 times FY28E earnings. 

The stock has been placed under F&O ban. 

"We expect working capital to normalise in the near term, as the company leverages non-recourse bill discounting and optimises inventory. However, with industrial segment growth slowing and the business likely shifting toward aerospace and railways, NWC could remain under pressure. The company’s ability to manage and contain NWC will be crucial for sustaining long-term financial health," Kotak said. 

JM Financial cut the target multiple of the core business to 45 times September 2027 EPS from 55 time. It said a rerating from remains heavily contingent upon spotless execution on both the P&L and balance sheet, until which the stock may continue to trade at multiples below its long-term averages. 

JPMorgan suggested a bear base fair value of Rs 4,900. Its overall target at Rs 7,550 could see the stock almost doubling from the prevailing levels. JPMorgan said there has been no change in fundamentals for Kaynes Tech on revenues and margins basis, but one of the key concerns on the stock has been stretched working capital and receivables post the September quarter results.